2026 World Cup · Score Research

07-02 08:00 CST · World Cup Group Stage · Separate HT/FT models

USA

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 4:1 Probability 6.4% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 4:1 6.4%; 2:1 11.6%; 1:1 12.7%; 3:1 8.5% Half-time first pick 0:0 (40.1%)

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength USA side rates higher

The handicap leans toward USA; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Team condition, ranks and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (40.1%); HT draw probability is 47.4%, so the model still respects early caution. National-ranking adjustment: current ranks are 美国 15 / 波黑 61; ranking is only a bounded direction and clean-sheet reweighting signal.

3. H2H and goal environment FT total 2.75

National-ranking adjustment: current ranks are 美国 15 / 波黑 61; ranking is only a bounded direction and clean-sheet reweighting signal.

4. Venue factor host edge / normal weather

Venue: 旧金山湾区体育场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 27℃～28℃. USA has a domestic-tournament setting here; treat it as a small crowd/familiarity edge, not a standalone reason to override the market. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

55 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

4:1 6.4%

2:1 11.6%

1:1 12.7%

3:1 8.5%

2:0 10.1%

1:0 8.3%

3:0 7.1%

2:2 4.8%

FT market: side line 1.50 · total 2.75 · Bucket ah_ou:1.5/3.0

Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 4:1 6.4%; 2:1 11.6%; 1:1 12.7%; 3:1 8.5%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 40.1%

1:0 29.1%

2:0 10.1%

1:1 7.2%

0:1 6.5%

3:0 2.4%

2:1 1.8%

4:0 0.9%

HT market: side line 0.75 · total 1.25

USA win68.9%

Draw21.3%

Bosnia and Herzegovina win9.8%

USA expected goals2.35

Bosnia and Herzegovina expected goals0.92

Under 3.559.4%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight40.7%

Sample size55

Europe 1X2home 71.5% / draw 18.8% / away 9.8%

Key Variables

First-goal path USA benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 21.3%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 59.4%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-07-02 07:00:01 CST (started/finished about 809h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: 2026-06-26 17:00:01 -> 2026-07-02 07:00:01

First snapshotFT handicap 1 · total 2.5

Latest marketFT handicap 1.5 · total 2.75

Movement: FT handicap 1 -> 1.5 (moved up 0.5); FT total 2.5 -> 2.75 (moved up 0.25); HT handicap 0.5 -> 0.75 (moved up 0.25); HT total 1 -> 1.25 (moved up 0.25).

Pre-match note: The market moved materially; rerun both FT and HT models and recheck lineups/injuries before release.

Opening vs 1h Pre-match Changes

Only matches whose first pick, second pick or 1X2 side changed are listed.

USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina 07-02 08:00 · FT · first pick, second pick, 1X2 side changed

Opening 2:1 15.1% · Home

1h pre-match 1:1 13.6% · Draw

Final Read: 4:1

Predicted side: USA win · Actual side: USA win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina is 4:1 (6.4%). USA side rates higher. National-ranking adjustment: current ranks are 美国 15 / 波黑 61; ranking is only a bounded direction and clean-sheet reweighting signal. HT first pick is 0:0 (40.1%); HT draw probability is 47.4%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · schedule, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only · RotoWire · World Cup lineups, injuries and weather context · Wikipedia · group structure, advancement rules and schedule cross-checks