2026 World Cup · Score Research

06-27 08:00 CST · World Cup Group Stage · Separate HT/FT models

Uruguay

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 0:1 Probability 12.8% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 0:1 12.8%; 1:1 15.7%; 1:2 12.0% Half-time first pick 0:0 (54.3%)

Spain

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Spain side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Spain; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (54.3%); HT draw probability is 60.4%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. H2H and goal environment FT total 2.25

This match uses a team-style adjustment: historical goals for, goals against and match tempo classify the teams' attacking or defensive tendency. The signal only reweights candidate scores and does not override the market baseline by itself.

4. Venue factor neutral / normal weather

Venue: 瓜达拉哈拉体育场. Neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 27℃～28℃. Neither side has a clear host-country edge, so the venue read mainly removes normal home advantage and pushes the decision back to market, lineup and tournament context. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line and Under 3.5 probability, the venue layer supports a lower-tempo or lower-margin script rather than pushing the score upward.

5. Sample and soft factors Thin sample

28 comparable matches; manual review needed

Full-Time Score Distribution

0:1 12.8%

1:1 15.7%

1:2 12.0%

0:2 9.0%

0:0 7.8%

1:3 5.7%

1:0 6.5%

0:3 5.1%

FT market: side line -0.75 · total 2.25 · Bucket ah_ou:-0.75/2.0

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 0:1 12.8%; 1:1 15.7%; 1:2 12.0%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 54.3%

0:1 19.5%

1:0 12.9%

1:1 6.1%

0:2 3.5%

2:0 1.8%

1:2 0.7%

0:3 0.5%

HT market: side line -0.25 · total 1.00

Uruguay win17.7%

Draw28.3%

Spain win54.1%

Uruguay expected goals0.91

Spain expected goals1.62

Under 3.575.7%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight25.9%

Sample size28

Europe 1X2home 16.0% / draw 26.3% / away 57.8%

Key Variables

First-goal path Spain benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 28.3%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 75.7%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-06-27 07:00:01 CST (started/finished about 929h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: 2026-06-21 00:30:01 -> 2026-06-27 07:00:01

First snapshotFT handicap -1 · total 2.5

Latest marketFT handicap -0.75 · total 2.25

Movement: FT handicap -1 -> -0.75 (moved up 0.25); FT total 2.5 -> 2.25 (moved down 0.25); HT handicap -0.5 -> -0.25 (moved up 0.25); HT total held at 1.

Pre-match note: The market moved moderately; keep the current ranking, but refresh again after confirmed lineups.

Opening vs 1h Pre-match Changes

Only matches whose first pick, second pick or 1X2 side changed are listed.

Uruguay vs Spain 06-27 08:00 · FT · second pick changed

Opening 1:1 16.1% · Draw

1h pre-match 1:1 15.5% · Draw

Final Read: 0:1

Predicted side: Spain win · Actual side: Spain win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Uruguay vs Spain is 0:1 (12.8%). Spain side rates higher. This match uses a team-style adjustment: historical goals for, goals against and match tempo classify the teams' attacking or defensive tendency. The signal only reweights candidate scores and does not override the market baseline by itself. HT first pick is 0:0 (54.3%); HT draw probability is 60.4%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · schedule, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only · RotoWire · World Cup lineups, injuries and weather context · Wikipedia · group structure, advancement rules and schedule cross-checks