2026 World Cup · Score Research

06-22 06:00 CST · World Cup Group Stage · Separate HT/FT models

Uruguay

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 23.3% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 23.3%; 2:1 14.5%; 1:2 8.2% Half-time first pick 0:0 (49.6%)

Cape Verde

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Uruguay side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Uruguay; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (49.6%); HT draw probability is 55.5%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. H2H and goal environment FT total 2.25

This match uses a mild World Cup tempo adjustment: finished-match replay suggests World Cup scores are slightly more open than the league baseline, so scorelines above two total goals receive a small lift without forcing a blowout.

4. Venue factor neutral / weather risk

Venue: 迈阿密体育场. Neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 微雨, 29℃～30℃. Neither side has a clear host-country edge, so the venue read mainly removes normal home advantage and pushes the decision back to market, lineup and tournament context. Weather creates a disruption signal, so high-tempo attacking chains and blowout tails are treated more carefully. Together with the totals line and Under 3.5 probability, the venue layer supports a lower-tempo or lower-margin script rather than pushing the score upward.

5. Sample and soft factors Strong sample

617 comparable matches; market bucket support is solid

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 23.3%

2:1 14.5%

1:2 8.2%

2:2 6.5%

1:0 8.0%

3:1 6.3%

2:0 6.8%

3:2 3.1%

FT market: side line 1.25 · total 2.25 · Bucket side_ou:home_favored/2.0

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 23.3%; 2:1 14.5%; 1:2 8.2%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 49.6%

1:0 26.0%

0:1 9.5%

1:1 5.7%

2:0 5.3%

3:0 1.1%

2:1 1.1%

0:2 0.8%

HT market: side line 0.50 · total 1.00

Uruguay win49.5%

Draw35.0%

Cape Verde win15.6%

Uruguay expected goals1.75

Cape Verde expected goals1.07

Under 3.571.8%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight58.0%

Sample size617

Europe 1X2home 68.4% / draw 21.8% / away 9.9%

Key Variables

First-goal path Uruguay benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 35.0%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 71.8%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-06-22 07:00:01 CST (started/finished about 1051h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: 2026-06-15 00:18:14 -> 2026-06-22 07:00:01

First snapshotFT handicap 1.25 · total 2.5

Latest marketFT handicap 0.75 · total 4.25

Movement: FT handicap 1.25 -> 0.75 (moved down 0.5); FT total 2.5 -> 4.25 (moved up 1.75); HT handicap 0.5 -> 0.25 (moved down 0.25); HT total 1 -> 2.5 (moved up 1.5).

Pre-match note: The market moved materially; rerun both FT and HT models and recheck lineups/injuries before release.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: Uruguay win · Actual side: draw · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Uruguay vs Cape Verde is 1:1 (23.3%). Uruguay side rates higher. This match uses a mild World Cup tempo adjustment: finished-match replay suggests World Cup scores are slightly more open than the league baseline, so scorelines above two total goals receive a small lift without forcing a blowout. HT first pick is 0:0 (49.6%); HT draw probability is 55.5%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · schedule, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only · RotoWire · World Cup lineups, injuries and weather context · Wikipedia · group structure, advancement rules and schedule cross-checks