2026 World Cup · Score Research

06-26 10:00 CST · World Cup Group Stage · Separate HT/FT models

Turkey

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:2 Probability 14.8% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 1:2 14.8%; 1:1 15.9%; 2:1 12.0%; 1:3 8.2% Half-time first pick 0:0 (51.2%)

USA

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength USA side rates higher

The handicap leans toward USA; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (51.2%); HT draw probability is 58.4%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. H2H and goal environment FT total 3.00

This match uses a mild World Cup tempo adjustment: finished-match replay suggests World Cup scores are slightly more open than the league baseline, so scorelines above two total goals receive a small lift without forcing a blowout.

4. Venue factor host edge / normal weather

Venue: 洛杉矶体育场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 19℃～20℃. USA has a domestic-tournament setting here; treat it as a small crowd/familiarity edge, not a standalone reason to override the market. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

116 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:2 14.8%

1:1 15.9%

2:1 12.0%

1:3 8.2%

2:2 7.0%

2:3 5.0%

3:1 3.7%

1:4 2.8%

FT market: side line -0.50 · total 3.00 · Bucket ah_ou:-0.5/3.0

Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 1:2 14.8%; 1:1 15.9%; 2:1 12.0%; 1:3 8.2%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 51.2%

0:1 19.3%

1:0 13.6%

1:1 7.0%

0:2 3.8%

2:0 2.2%

1:2 1.1%

0:3 0.6%

HT market: side line -0.25 · total 1.25

Turkey win26.9%

Draw27.7%

USA win45.4%

Turkey expected goals1.50

USA expected goals1.91

Under 3.557.9%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight59.2%

Sample size116

Europe 1X2home 25.2% / draw 23.1% / away 51.7%

Key Variables

First-goal path USA benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 27.7%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 57.9%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-06-26 07:00:02 CST (started/finished about 951h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: 2026-06-20 00:30:01 -> 2026-06-26 07:00:02

First snapshotFT handicap 0 · total 2.5

Latest marketFT handicap -0.5 · total 3

Movement: FT handicap 0 -> -0.5 (moved down 0.5); FT total 2.5 -> 3 (moved up 0.5); HT handicap 0 -> -0.25 (moved down 0.25); HT total 1 -> 1.25 (moved up 0.25).

Pre-match note: The market moved materially; rerun both FT and HT models and recheck lineups/injuries before release.

Final Read: 1:2

Predicted side: USA win · Actual side: Turkey win · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Turkey vs USA is 1:2 (14.8%). USA side rates higher. This match uses a mild World Cup tempo adjustment: finished-match replay suggests World Cup scores are slightly more open than the league baseline, so scorelines above two total goals receive a small lift without forcing a blowout. HT first pick is 0:0 (51.2%); HT draw probability is 58.4%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · schedule, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only · RotoWire · World Cup lineups, injuries and weather context · Wikipedia · group structure, advancement rules and schedule cross-checks