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2026 World Cup · Score Research

06-20 11:00 CST · World Cup Group Stage · Separate HT/FT models

Tu

Turkey

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 24.8% · Standard score cluster Half-time first pick 0:0 (54.4%)
Pa

Paraguay

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Turkey side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Turkey; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (54.4%); HT draw probability is 59.9%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. H2H and goal environment FT total 2.25

This match uses a mild World Cup tempo adjustment: finished-match replay suggests World Cup scores are slightly more open than the league baseline, so scorelines above two total goals receive a small lift without forcing a blowout.

4. Venue factor neutral / normal weather

Venue: 旧金山湾区体育场. Neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 26℃～27℃. Neither side has a clear host-country edge, so the venue read mainly removes normal home advantage and pushes the decision back to market, lineup and tournament context. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line and Under 3.5 probability, the venue layer supports a lower-tempo or lower-margin script rather than pushing the score upward.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

195 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 24.8%
2:1 17.7%
1:2 10.0%
2:2 6.9%
3:1 5.7%
3:2 4.6%
1:0 4.3%
4:1 2.9%
FT market: side line 0.50 · total 2.25 · Bucket ah_ou:0.5/2.0
Score cluster: pending

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 54.4%
1:0 21.1%
0:1 11.3%
1:1 5.3%
2:0 2.6%
0:2 1.8%
2:1 1.2%
3:0 0.8%
HT market: side line 0.25 · total 1.00
Turkey win42.8%
Draw35.4%
Paraguay win21.8%
Turkey expected goals1.71
Paraguay expected goals1.34
Under 3.567.8%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight70.9%
Sample size195
Europe 1X2home 46.7% / draw 28.3% / away 25.0%

Key Variables

First-goal path Turkey benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 35.4%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 67.8%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-06-20 12:00:01 CST (started/finished about 1094h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: 2026-06-14 17:50:24 -> 2026-06-20 12:00:01

First snapshotFT handicap 0.5 · total 2.25
Latest marketFT handicap 1.25 · total 2.75

Movement: FT handicap 0.5 -> 1.25 (moved up 0.75); FT total 2.25 -> 2.75 (moved up 0.5); HT handicap held at 0.25; HT total 1 -> 1.5 (moved up 0.5).

Pre-match note: The market moved materially; rerun both FT and HT models and recheck lineups/injuries before release.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: Turkey win · Actual side: Paraguay win · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Turkey vs Paraguay is 1:1 (24.8%). Turkey side rates higher. This match uses a mild World Cup tempo adjustment: finished-match replay suggests World Cup scores are slightly more open than the league baseline, so scorelines above two total goals receive a small lift without forcing a blowout. HT first pick is 0:0 (54.4%); HT draw probability is 59.9%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · schedule, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only · RotoWire · World Cup lineups, injuries and weather context · Wikipedia · group structure, advancement rules and schedule cross-checks