2026 World Cup · Score Research

06-21 12:00 CST · World Cup Group Stage · Separate HT/FT models

Tunisia

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:2 Probability 15.7% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:2 15.7%; 1:1 20.9%; 2:1 8.5% Half-time first pick 0:0 (46.8%)

Japan

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Japan side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Japan; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (46.8%); HT draw probability is 53.1%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. H2H and goal environment FT total 2.25

This match uses a mild World Cup tempo adjustment: finished-match replay suggests World Cup scores are slightly more open than the league baseline, so scorelines above two total goals receive a small lift without forcing a blowout.

4. Venue factor neutral / normal weather

Venue: 蒙特雷体育场. Neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 多云, 22℃～23℃. Neither side has a clear host-country edge, so the venue read mainly removes normal home advantage and pushes the decision back to market, lineup and tournament context. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line and Under 3.5 probability, the venue layer supports a lower-tempo or lower-margin script rather than pushing the score upward.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

235 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:2 15.7%

1:1 20.9%

2:1 8.5%

1:3 6.7%

2:2 6.0%

0:1 7.4%

0:2 5.9%

0:0 4.2%

FT market: side line -1.00 · total 2.25 · Bucket side_ou:away_favored/2.0

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:2 15.7%; 1:1 20.9%; 2:1 8.5%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 46.8%

0:1 26.6%

1:0 8.9%

0:2 7.6%

1:1 6.2%

1:2 1.1%

0:3 1.1%

2:0 0.6%

HT market: side line -0.50 · total 1.00

Tunisia win19.1%

Draw32.3%

Japan win48.6%

Tunisia expected goals1.16

Japan expected goals1.76

Under 3.569.3%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight58.0%

Sample size235

Europe 1X2home 12.1% / draw 21.8% / away 66.1%

Key Variables

First-goal path Japan benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 32.3%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 69.3%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-06-21 12:00:01 CST (started/finished about 1069h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: 2026-06-15 00:18:14 -> 2026-06-21 12:00:01

First snapshotFT handicap -0.75 · total 2.25

Latest marketFT handicap -0.75 · total 3

Movement: FT handicap held at -0.75; FT total 2.25 -> 3 (moved up 0.75); HT handicap held at -0.25; HT total 0.75 -> 1.75 (moved up 1).

Pre-match note: The market moved materially; rerun both FT and HT models and recheck lineups/injuries before release.

Final Read: 1:2

Predicted side: Japan win · Actual side: Japan win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Tunisia vs Japan is 1:2 (15.7%). Japan side rates higher. This match uses a mild World Cup tempo adjustment: finished-match replay suggests World Cup scores are slightly more open than the league baseline, so scorelines above two total goals receive a small lift without forcing a blowout. HT first pick is 0:0 (46.8%); HT draw probability is 53.1%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · schedule, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only · RotoWire · World Cup lineups, injuries and weather context · Wikipedia · group structure, advancement rules and schedule cross-checks