2026 World Cup · Score Research

06-15 10:00 CST · World Cup Group Stage · Separate HT/FT models

Sweden

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 24.8% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 24.8%; 2:1 17.7%; 1:2 10.0% Half-time first pick 0:0 (54.7%)

Tunisia

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Sweden side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Sweden; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (54.7%); HT draw probability is 60.1%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. H2H and goal environment FT total 2.25

This match uses a mild World Cup tempo adjustment: finished-match replay suggests World Cup scores are slightly more open than the league baseline, so scorelines above two total goals receive a small lift without forcing a blowout.

4. Venue factor neutral / normal weather

Venue: 蒙特雷体育场. Neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 27℃～28℃. Neither side has a clear host-country edge, so the venue read mainly removes normal home advantage and pushes the decision back to market, lineup and tournament context. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line and Under 3.5 probability, the venue layer supports a lower-tempo or lower-margin script rather than pushing the score upward.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

195 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 24.8%

2:1 17.7%

1:2 10.0%

2:2 7.2%

3:1 5.7%

3:2 4.6%

4:1 3.2%

1:0 4.1%

FT market: side line 0.50 · total 2.25 · Bucket ah_ou:0.5/2.0

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 24.8%; 2:1 17.7%; 1:2 10.0%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 54.7%

1:0 20.8%

0:1 11.3%

1:1 5.3%

2:0 2.8%

0:2 1.8%

2:1 1.2%

3:0 0.8%

HT market: side line 0.25 · total 1.00

Sweden win42.9%

Draw35.7%

Tunisia win21.4%

Sweden expected goals1.72

Tunisia expected goals1.34

Under 3.567.4%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight70.9%

Sample size195

Europe 1X2home 49.4% / draw 28.6% / away 22.0%

Key Variables

First-goal path Sweden benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 35.7%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 67.4%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-06-15 07:00:01 CST (started/finished about 1215h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: 2026-06-13 23:39:28 -> 2026-06-15 07:00:01

First snapshotFT handicap 0.5 · total 2.25

Latest marketFT handicap 0.5 · total 2.25

Movement: FT handicap held at 0.5; FT total held at 2.25; HT handicap held at 0.25; HT total held at 1.

Pre-match note: Market movement is limited; keep the model ranking unless late odds or lineups change materially.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: Sweden win · Actual side: Sweden win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Sweden vs Tunisia is 1:1 (24.8%). Sweden side rates higher. This match uses a mild World Cup tempo adjustment: finished-match replay suggests World Cup scores are slightly more open than the league baseline, so scorelines above two total goals receive a small lift without forcing a blowout. HT first pick is 0:0 (54.7%); HT draw probability is 60.1%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · schedule, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only · RotoWire · World Cup lineups, injuries and weather context · Wikipedia · group structure, advancement rules and schedule cross-checks