2026 World Cup · Score Research

06-16 00:00 CST · World Cup Group Stage · Separate HT/FT models

Spain

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 4:0 Probability 6.3% · High-total score cluster High-total score cluster: 4:0 6.3%; 2:1 9.7%; 3:1 8.6%; 3:0 7.7%; 4:1 5.5%; 5:1 4.0%; 3:2 4.1%; 5:0 4.0% Half-time first pick 0:0 (36.3%)

Cape Verde

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Spain side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Spain; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (36.3%); HT draw probability is 43.9%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. H2H and goal environment FT total 3.50

This match uses a team-style adjustment: historical goals for, goals against and match tempo classify the teams' attacking or defensive tendency. The signal only reweights candidate scores and does not override the market baseline by itself.

4. Venue factor neutral / weather risk

Venue: 亚特兰大体育场. Neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 微雨, 28℃～29℃. Neither side has a clear host-country edge, so the venue read mainly removes normal home advantage and pushes the decision back to market, lineup and tournament context. Weather creates a disruption signal, so high-tempo attacking chains and blowout tails are treated more carefully. The totals line is high, but the weather-risk signal keeps unconditional open-game assumptions under review.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

171 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

4:0 6.3%

2:1 9.7%

3:1 8.6%

3:0 7.7%

1:1 8.5%

4:1 5.5%

2:0 7.0%

5:1 4.0%

FT market: side line 2.50 · total 3.50 · Bucket side_ou:home_favored/3.5

Score cluster: High-total score cluster: 4:0 6.3%; 2:1 9.7%; 3:1 8.6%; 3:0 7.7%; 4:1 5.5%; 5:1 4.0%; 3:2 4.1%; 5:0 4.0%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 36.3%

1:0 26.0%

2:0 12.7%

1:1 7.2%

0:1 5.1%

3:0 3.9%

0:2 2.5%

1:2 1.9%

HT market: side line 1.00 · total 1.50

Spain win72.5%

Draw15.7%

Cape Verde win11.8%

Spain expected goals2.84

Cape Verde expected goals1.04

Under 3.544.7%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight45.0%

Sample size171

Europe 1X2home 87.2% / draw 8.6% / away 4.1%

Key Variables

First-goal path Spain benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 15.7%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 44.7%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-06-15 22:00:01 CST (started/finished about 1201h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: 2026-06-13 23:39:28 -> 2026-06-15 22:00:01

First snapshotFT handicap 2.5 · total 3.5

Latest marketFT handicap 2.75 · total 3.75

Movement: FT handicap 2.5 -> 2.75 (moved up 0.25); FT total 3.5 -> 3.75 (moved up 0.25); HT handicap held at 1.25; HT total 1.5 -> 1.75 (moved up 0.25).

Pre-match note: The market moved moderately; keep the current ranking, but refresh again after confirmed lineups.

Final Read: 4:0

Predicted side: Spain win · Actual side: draw · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Spain vs Cape Verde is 4:0 (6.3%). Spain side rates higher. This match uses a team-style adjustment: historical goals for, goals against and match tempo classify the teams' attacking or defensive tendency. The signal only reweights candidate scores and does not override the market baseline by itself. Tail-score watch: 6:0 2.1%; 6:1 1.5%; 7:0 0.9%; 7:1 0.8%; 8:0 0.4%; 8:1 0.2%. HT first pick is 0:0 (36.3%); HT draw probability is 43.9%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · schedule, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only · RotoWire · World Cup lineups, injuries and weather context · Wikipedia · group structure, advancement rules and schedule cross-checks