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2026 World Cup · Score Research

06-12 10:00 CST · World Cup Group Stage · Separate HT/FT models

So

South Korea

Home side / left blind-prior direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 30.5% · Standard score cluster Half-time first pick 0:0 (56.3%)
Cz

Czech Republic

Away side / right blind-prior direction

Five-Factor Read

1. No-market strength Draw carries the highest weight

This is a pre-match blind record; the rank, venue and historical-market prior leans toward South Korea. The match result was not read.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (56.3%); HT draw probability is 61.2%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. H2H and goal environment FT total 2.25

The total line and model distribution lean low-scoring, with density around 0-0, 1-0, 1-1 and 2-1.

4. Venue factor neutral / normal weather

Venue: 瓜达拉哈拉体育场. Neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 25℃～26℃. Neither side has a clear host-country edge, so the venue read mainly removes normal home advantage and pushes the decision back to market, lineup and tournament context. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line and Under 3.5 probability, the venue layer supports a lower-tempo or lower-margin script rather than pushing the score upward.

5. Sample and soft factors Pre-match blind record

This prediction is stored as a pre-match blind record; historical odds and results are used only for later review

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 30.5%
2:1 15.2%
1:2 13.4%
2:2 9.9%
3:1 5.8%
3:2 3.8%
FT blind baseline: side line 0.25 · total 2.25 · Bucket blind_prior:ah_ou:0.25/2.0
Score cluster: pending

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 56.3%
1:0 16.0%
0:1 15.6%
1:1 4.7%
0:2 2.3%
2:0 2.1%
HT blind baseline: side line 0.00 · total 1.00
South Korea win32.4%
Draw43.5%
Czech Republic win24.0%
South Korea expected goals1.58
Czech Republic expected goals1.43
Under 3.569.0%
FT temperature0.90
Empirical weight78.3%
Sample size288
Europe 1X2not used

Key Variables

First-goal path South Korea benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 43.5%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 69.0%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Blind Record · Historical Odds Review

Recorded 2026-08-05 01:19:19 (started/finished about 1287h 20m ago)

FT pre-match baselineSide line 0.25 · total 2.25
HT pre-match baselineSide line 0 · total 1

Data boundary: this match is stored from a pre-match blind prediction and does not read the finished score. Historical odds and results are used only for later review and audit.

Use: keep already-tested blind predictions inside the full schedule report and review them consistently with later model versions.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: draw · Actual side: South Korea win · side missed

This page is generated from a pre-match blind record: at prediction time it used schedule identity, team ranking, venue status and local historical distributions, without reading the match result. Historical odds are used only for later review. The model's full-time first pick for South Korea vs Czech Republic is 1:1 (30.5%). Draw carries the highest weight. The total line and model distribution lean low-scoring, with density around 0-0, 1-0, 1-1 and 2-1. HT first pick is 0:0 (56.3%); HT draw probability is 61.2%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · schedule, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only · RotoWire · World Cup lineups, injuries and weather context · Wikipedia · group structure, advancement rules and schedule cross-checks