2026 World Cup · Score Research

06-27 03:00 CST · World Cup Group Stage · Separate HT/FT models

Senegal

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 13.8% · High-total score cluster High-total score cluster: 2:1 13.8%; 3:1 9.7%; 3:0 6.0%; 3:2 4.4%; 4:1 4.2%; 4:0 3.6%; 4:2 2.7%; 5:1 2.5% Half-time first pick 1:0 (29.4%)

Iraq

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Senegal side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Senegal; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 1:0

HT first pick is 1:0 (29.4%); HT draw probability is 45.2%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. Qualification Context FT total 3.00

Qualification context: the underdog is under points pressure and must chase, so the model lifts 3+ goal and favorite-separation candidates.

4. Venue factor neutral / normal weather

Venue: 多伦多体育场. Neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 22℃～23℃. Neither side has a clear host-country edge, so the venue read mainly removes normal home advantage and pushes the decision back to market, lineup and tournament context. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Strong sample

949 comparable matches; market bucket support is solid

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 13.8%

3:1 9.7%

1:1 12.1%

2:2 5.8%

3:0 6.0%

1:2 5.9%

2:0 6.5%

3:2 4.4%

FT market: side line 2.00 · total 3.00 · Bucket side_ou:home_favored/3.0

Score cluster: High-total score cluster: 2:1 13.8%; 3:1 9.7%; 3:0 6.0%; 3:2 4.4%; 4:1 4.2%; 4:0 3.6%; 4:2 2.7%; 5:1 2.5%

Half-Time Score Distribution

1:0 29.4%

0:0 37.6%

2:0 11.0%

1:1 7.4%

0:1 6.4%

3:0 2.9%

2:1 2.0%

4:0 1.1%

HT market: side line 0.75 · total 1.25

Senegal win64.7%

Draw21.5%

Iraq win13.9%

Senegal expected goals2.40

Iraq expected goals1.16

Under 3.552.7%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight55.0%

Sample size949

Europe 1X2home 78.5% / draw 14.1% / away 7.4%

Key Variables

First-goal path Senegal benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 1:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 21.5%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 52.7%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-06-27 03:00:01 CST (started/finished about 934h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: 2026-06-20 00:30:01 -> 2026-06-27 03:00:01

First snapshotFT handicap 1.5 · total 2.5

Latest marketFT handicap 1.75 · total 3.75

Movement: FT handicap 1.5 -> 1.75 (moved up 0.25); FT total 2.5 -> 3.75 (moved up 1.25); HT handicap 0.5 -> 0.75 (moved up 0.25); HT total 1 -> 2 (moved up 1).

Pre-match note: The market moved materially; rerun both FT and HT models and recheck lineups/injuries before release.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: Senegal win · Actual side: Senegal win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Senegal vs Iraq is 2:1 (13.8%). Senegal side rates higher. Qualification context: the underdog is under points pressure and must chase, so the model lifts 3+ goal and favorite-separation candidates. HT first pick is 1:0 (29.4%); HT draw probability is 45.2%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · schedule, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only · RotoWire · World Cup lineups, injuries and weather context · Wikipedia · group structure, advancement rules and schedule cross-checks