2026 World Cup · Score Research

06-20 06:00 CST · World Cup Group Stage · Separate HT/FT models

Scotland

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 0:1 Probability 12.6% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 0:1 12.6%; 1:1 15.7%; 1:2 12.2% Half-time first pick 0:0 (52.8%)

Morocco

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Morocco side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Morocco; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (52.8%); HT draw probability is 59.2%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.25

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 摩洛哥实力占优但攻击效率低；苏格兰防守稳固，节奏慢，小比分概率高。

4. Venue factor neutral / normal weather

Venue: 波士顿球场. Neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 25℃～26℃. Neither side has a clear host-country edge, so the venue read mainly removes normal home advantage and pushes the decision back to market, lineup and tournament context. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line and Under 3.5 probability, the venue layer supports a lower-tempo or lower-margin script rather than pushing the score upward.

5. Sample and soft factors Thin sample

25 comparable matches; manual review needed

Full-Time Score Distribution

0:1 12.6%

1:1 15.7%

1:2 12.2%

0:2 9.5%

0:0 8.1%

1:3 5.4%

1:0 5.8%

0:3 4.8%

FT market: side line -0.75 · total 2.25 · Bucket ah_ou:-0.75/2.0

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 0:1 12.6%; 1:1 15.7%; 1:2 12.2%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 52.8%

0:1 20.1%

1:0 13.1%

1:1 6.3%

0:2 3.7%

2:0 2.0%

1:2 0.7%

0:3 0.5%

HT market: side line -0.25 · total 0.75

Scotland win16.7%

Draw28.4%

Morocco win54.9%

Scotland expected goals0.89

Morocco expected goals1.64

Under 3.575.8%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight23.8%

Sample size25

Europe 1X2home 19.2% / draw 25.7% / away 55.2%

Key Variables

First-goal path Morocco benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 28.4%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 75.8%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-06-20 07:00:01 CST (started/finished about 1099h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: 2026-06-13 23:39:28 -> 2026-06-20 07:00:01

First snapshotFT handicap -0.5 · total 2.25

Latest marketFT handicap -0.25 · total 2.25

Movement: FT handicap -0.5 -> -0.25 (moved up 0.25); FT total held at 2.25; HT handicap held at -0.25; HT total 0.75 -> 1.5 (moved up 0.75).

Pre-match note: The market moved moderately; keep the current ranking, but refresh again after confirmed lineups.

Final Read: 0:1

Predicted side: Morocco win · Actual side: Morocco win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Scotland vs Morocco is 0:1 (12.6%). Morocco side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 摩洛哥实力占优但攻击效率低；苏格兰防守稳固，节奏慢，小比分概率高。 HT first pick is 0:0 (52.8%); HT draw probability is 59.2%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · schedule, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only · RotoWire · World Cup lineups, injuries and weather context · Wikipedia · group structure, advancement rules and schedule cross-checks