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2026 World Cup · Score Research

06-14 03:00 CST · World Cup Group Stage · Separate HT/FT models

Qatar

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:2 Probability 15.3% · Standard score cluster Half-time first pick 0:0 (45.6%)

Switzerland

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Switzerland side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Switzerland; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (45.6%); HT draw probability is 51.9%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. H2H and goal environment FT total 3.00

This match uses a team-style adjustment: historical goals for, goals against and match tempo classify the teams' attacking or defensive tendency. The signal only reweights candidate scores and does not override the market baseline by itself.

4. Venue factor neutral / normal weather

Venue: 旧金山湾区体育场. Neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 27℃～28℃. Neither side has a clear host-country edge, so the venue read mainly removes normal home advantage and pushes the decision back to market, lineup and tournament context. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Strong sample

504 comparable matches; market bucket support is solid

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:2 15.3%

1:1 13.5%

1:3 9.0%

2:1 7.3%

2:2 6.3%

1:4 5.0%

0:2 6.7%

0:3 5.1%

FT market: side line -1.75 · total 3.00 · Bucket side_ou:away_favored/3.0

Score cluster: pending

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 45.6%

0:1 24.0%

1:0 10.0%

0:2 7.8%

1:1 6.2%

0:3 2.4%

2:0 1.3%

1:2 1.3%

HT market: side line -0.75 · total 1.25

Qatar win15.8%

Draw23.3%

Switzerland win60.9%

Qatar expected goals1.18

Switzerland expected goals2.21

Under 3.557.2%

FT temperature0.90

Empirical weight55.0%

Sample size504

Europe 1X2home 7.0% / draw 14.4% / away 78.6%

Key Variables

First-goal path Switzerland benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 23.3%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 57.2%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-06-13 23:39:28 CST (started/finished about 1246h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: 2026-06-13 01:03:48 -> 2026-06-13 23:39:28

First snapshotFT handicap -1.75 · total 2.75

Latest marketFT handicap -1.75 · total 3

Movement: FT handicap held at -1.75; FT total 2.75 -> 3 (moved up 0.25); HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: The market moved moderately; keep the current ranking, but refresh again after confirmed lineups.

Final Read: 1:2

Predicted side: Switzerland win · Actual side: draw · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Qatar vs Switzerland is 1:2 (15.3%). Switzerland side rates higher. This match uses a team-style adjustment: historical goals for, goals against and match tempo classify the teams' attacking or defensive tendency. The signal only reweights candidate scores and does not override the market baseline by itself. HT first pick is 0:0 (45.6%); HT draw probability is 51.9%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · schedule, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only · RotoWire · World Cup lineups, injuries and weather context · Wikipedia · group structure, advancement rules and schedule cross-checks