2026 World Cup · Score Research

06-25 06:00 CST · World Cup Group Stage · Separate HT/FT models

Morocco

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 3:1 Probability 9.8% · High-total score cluster High-total score cluster: 3:1 9.8%; 2:1 12.9%; 3:0 6.2%; 4:1 4.7%; 3:2 4.1%; 4:0 4.1%; 5:1 3.0%; 4:2 3.0% Half-time first pick 0:0 (47.2%)

Haiti

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Morocco side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Morocco; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (47.2%); HT draw probability is 51.9%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. Qualification Context FT total 3.00

Qualification context: the underdog is under points pressure and must chase, so the model lifts 3+ goal and favorite-separation candidates.

4. Venue factor neutral / heat

Venue: 亚特兰大体育场. Neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 28℃～29℃. Neither side has a clear host-country edge, so the venue read mainly removes normal home advantage and pushes the decision back to market, lineup and tournament context. Higher temperature raises fatigue risk and late-game tempo drop risk. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Strong sample

948 comparable matches; market bucket support is solid

Full-Time Score Distribution

3:1 9.8%

2:1 12.9%

1:1 11.7%

2:2 5.6%

3:0 6.2%

4:1 4.7%

1:2 5.7%

2:0 6.3%

FT market: side line 2.00 · total 3.00 · Bucket side_ou:home_favored/3.0

Score cluster: High-total score cluster: 3:1 9.8%; 2:1 12.9%; 3:0 6.2%; 4:1 4.7%; 3:2 4.1%; 4:0 4.1%; 5:1 3.0%; 4:2 3.0%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 47.2%

1:0 27.3%

2:0 8.0%

0:1 7.1%

1:1 4.5%

3:0 2.5%

2:1 1.2%

0:2 0.7%

HT market: side line 1.00 · total 1.25

Morocco win66.0%

Draw20.7%

Haiti win13.3%

Morocco expected goals2.50

Haiti expected goals1.14

Under 3.550.5%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight55.0%

Sample size948

Europe 1X2home 81.2% / draw 12.8% / away 6.0%

Key Variables

First-goal path Morocco benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 20.7%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 50.5%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-06-25 07:00:01 CST (started/finished about 979h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: 2026-06-18 03:00:01 -> 2026-06-25 07:00:01

First snapshotFT handicap 1.5 · total 2.75

Latest marketFT handicap 1 · total 5.75

Movement: FT handicap 1.5 -> 1 (moved down 0.5); FT total 2.75 -> 5.75 (moved up 3); HT handicap 0.75 -> 0.25 (moved down 0.5); HT total 1.25 -> 4.5 (moved up 3.25).

Pre-match note: The market moved materially; rerun both FT and HT models and recheck lineups/injuries before release.

Final Read: 3:1

Predicted side: Morocco win · Actual side: Morocco win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Morocco vs Haiti is 3:1 (9.8%). Morocco side rates higher. Qualification context: the underdog is under points pressure and must chase, so the model lifts 3+ goal and favorite-separation candidates. Tail-score watch: 6:1 1.1%; 6:0 1.0%; 7:1 0.3%; 7:0 0.3%; 8:1 0.1%; 8:0 0.1%. HT first pick is 0:0 (47.2%); HT draw probability is 51.9%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · schedule, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only · RotoWire · World Cup lineups, injuries and weather context · Wikipedia · group structure, advancement rules and schedule cross-checks