2026 World Cup · Score Research

06-19 09:00 CST · World Cup Group Stage · Separate HT/FT models

Mexico

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 23.8% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 23.8%; 2:1 17.9%; 1:2 9.4% Half-time first pick 0:0 (55.8%)

South Korea

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Mexico side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Mexico; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (55.8%); HT draw probability is 61.0%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.25

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 墨西哥主场优势明显但让球不深，韩国防守稳固，预期小比分胶着，平局概率高。

4. Venue factor host edge / normal weather

Venue: 瓜达拉哈拉体育场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 21℃～22℃. Mexico has a domestic-tournament setting here; treat it as a small crowd/familiarity edge, not a standalone reason to override the market. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line and Under 3.5 probability, the venue layer supports a lower-tempo or lower-margin script rather than pushing the score upward.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

195 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 23.8%

2:1 17.9%

1:2 9.4%

2:2 7.2%

3:1 6.4%

3:2 4.8%

4:1 3.8%

1:0 3.9%

FT market: side line 0.50 · total 2.25 · Bucket ah_ou:0.5/2.0

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 23.8%; 2:1 17.9%; 1:2 9.4%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 55.8%

1:0 20.7%

0:1 11.1%

1:1 5.0%

2:0 2.6%

0:2 1.7%

2:1 1.0%

3:0 0.7%

HT market: side line 0.25 · total 0.75

Mexico win45.3%

Draw34.5%

South Korea win20.2%

Mexico expected goals1.80

South Korea expected goals1.34

Under 3.565.4%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight70.9%

Sample size195

Europe 1X2home 46.6% / draw 29.1% / away 24.3%

Key Variables

First-goal path Mexico benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 34.5%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 65.4%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-06-19 07:00:01 CST (started/finished about 1120h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: 2026-06-13 23:39:28 -> 2026-06-19 07:00:01

First snapshotFT handicap 0.5 · total 2

Latest marketFT handicap 0.5 · total 2.25

Movement: FT handicap held at 0.5; FT total 2 -> 2.25 (moved up 0.25); HT handicap held at 0.25; HT total 0.75 -> 1 (moved up 0.25).

Pre-match note: The market moved moderately; keep the current ranking, but refresh again after confirmed lineups.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: Mexico win · Actual side: Mexico win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Mexico vs South Korea is 1:1 (23.8%). Mexico side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 墨西哥主场优势明显但让球不深，韩国防守稳固，预期小比分胶着，平局概率高。 HT first pick is 0:0 (55.8%); HT draw probability is 61.0%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · schedule, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only · RotoWire · World Cup lineups, injuries and weather context · Wikipedia · group structure, advancement rules and schedule cross-checks