2026 World Cup · Score Research

06-28 10:00 CST · World Cup Group Stage · Separate HT/FT models

Jordan

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:3 Probability 9.1% · High-total score cluster High-total score cluster: 1:3 9.1%; 1:2 12.6%; 1:4 5.9%; 0:3 7.1%; 0:4 5.0%; 2:3 2.8%; 0:5 2.7%; 1:5 2.3% Half-time first pick 0:0 (47.2%)

Argentina

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Argentina side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Argentina; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (47.2%); HT draw probability is 52.0%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. Qualification Context FT total 3.00

Qualification context: the underdog is under points pressure and must chase, so the model lifts 3+ goal and favorite-separation candidates.

4. Venue factor neutral / heat

Venue: 达拉斯体育场. Neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 33℃～34℃. Neither side has a clear host-country edge, so the venue read mainly removes normal home advantage and pushes the decision back to market, lineup and tournament context. Higher temperature raises fatigue risk and late-game tempo drop risk. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Strong sample

511 comparable matches; market bucket support is solid

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:3 9.1%

1:2 12.6%

1:1 10.7%

1:4 5.9%

0:3 7.1%

2:1 6.3%

0:2 7.1%

2:2 5.4%

FT market: side line -2.25 · total 3.00 · Bucket side_ou:away_favored/3.0

Score cluster: High-total score cluster: 1:3 9.1%; 1:2 12.6%; 1:4 5.9%; 0:3 7.1%; 0:4 5.0%; 2:3 2.8%; 0:5 2.7%; 1:5 2.3%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 47.2%

0:1 25.3%

0:2 8.9%

1:0 8.2%

1:1 4.7%

0:3 2.8%

2:0 0.9%

1:2 0.8%

HT market: side line -1.00 · total 1.25

Jordan win14.0%

Draw19.3%

Argentina win66.7%

Jordan expected goals1.09

Argentina expected goals2.50

Under 3.551.6%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight55.0%

Sample size511

Europe 1X2home 4.6% / draw 10.6% / away 84.8%

Key Variables

First-goal path Argentina benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 19.3%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 51.6%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-06-28 07:00:01 CST (started/finished about 903h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: 2026-06-22 00:30:01 -> 2026-06-28 07:00:01

First snapshotFT handicap -2 · total 3

Latest marketFT handicap -2.25 · total 3

Movement: FT handicap -2 -> -2.25 (moved down 0.25); FT total held at 3; HT handicap -0.75 -> -1 (moved down 0.25); HT total held at 1.25.

Pre-match note: The market moved moderately; keep the current ranking, but refresh again after confirmed lineups.

Final Read: 1:3

Predicted side: Argentina win · Actual side: Argentina win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Jordan vs Argentina is 1:3 (9.1%). Argentina side rates higher. Qualification context: the underdog is under points pressure and must chase, so the model lifts 3+ goal and favorite-separation candidates. Tail-score watch: 0:6 1.2%; 1:6 0.7%; 0:7 0.4%; 1:7 0.3%; 1:8 0.2%; 0:8 0.1%. HT first pick is 0:0 (47.2%); HT draw probability is 52.0%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · schedule, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only · RotoWire · World Cup lineups, injuries and weather context · Wikipedia · group structure, advancement rules and schedule cross-checks