2026 World Cup · Score Research

06-23 11:00 CST · World Cup Group Stage · Separate HT/FT models

Jordan

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:2 Probability 14.0% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:2 14.0%; 1:1 19.4%; 2:1 8.6% Half-time first pick 0:0 (46.3%)

Algeria

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Algeria side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Algeria; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (46.3%); HT draw probability is 52.8%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. H2H and goal environment FT total 2.50

This match uses a mild World Cup tempo adjustment: finished-match replay suggests World Cup scores are slightly more open than the league baseline, so scorelines above two total goals receive a small lift without forcing a blowout.

4. Venue factor Neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 20℃～21℃. Neither side has a clear host-country edge, so the venue read mainly removes normal home advantage and pushes the decision back to market, lineup and tournament context. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

191 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:2 14.0%

1:1 19.4%

2:1 8.6%

2:2 7.5%

1:3 6.6%

0:1 6.1%

0:2 5.3%

2:3 3.4%

FT market: side line -1.00 · total 2.50 · Bucket side_ou:away_favored/2.5

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:2 14.0%; 1:1 19.4%; 2:1 8.6%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 46.3%

0:1 26.6%

1:0 9.2%

0:2 7.4%

1:1 6.5%

1:2 1.2%

0:3 1.1%

2:0 0.7%

HT market: side line -0.50 · total 1.00

Jordan win20.8%

Draw31.7%

Algeria win47.5%

Jordan expected goals1.28

Algeria expected goals1.82

Under 3.563.7%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight58.0%

Sample size191

Europe 1X2home 14.3% / draw 21.8% / away 63.9%

Key Variables

First-goal path Algeria benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 31.7%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 63.7%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-06-23 12:00:01 CST (started/finished about 1022h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: 2026-06-17 03:00:02 -> 2026-06-23 12:00:01

First snapshotFT handicap -1 · total 2.5

Latest marketFT handicap -0.75 · total 2.5

Movement: FT handicap -1 -> -0.75 (moved up 0.25); FT total held at 2.5; HT handicap -0.5 -> -0.25 (moved up 0.25); HT total 1 -> 1.5 (moved up 0.5).

Pre-match note: The market moved moderately; keep the current ranking, but refresh again after confirmed lineups.

Final Read: 1:2

Predicted side: Algeria win · Actual side: Algeria win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Jordan vs Algeria is 1:2 (14.0%). Algeria side rates higher. This match uses a mild World Cup tempo adjustment: finished-match replay suggests World Cup scores are slightly more open than the league baseline, so scorelines above two total goals receive a small lift without forcing a blowout. HT first pick is 0:0 (46.3%); HT draw probability is 52.8%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · schedule, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only · RotoWire · World Cup lineups, injuries and weather context · Wikipedia · group structure, advancement rules and schedule cross-checks