2026 World Cup · Score Research

07-01 01:00 CST · World Cup Group Stage · Separate HT/FT models

Ivory Coast

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 19.2% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 19.2%; 2:1 11.6%; 1:2 11.1% Half-time first pick 0:0 (54.2%)

Norway

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Norway side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Norway; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (54.2%); HT draw probability is 60.4%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. H2H and goal environment FT total 2.50

This match uses a mild World Cup tempo adjustment: finished-match replay suggests World Cup scores are slightly more open than the league baseline, so scorelines above two total goals receive a small lift without forcing a blowout.

4. Venue factor neutral / heat

Venue: 达拉斯体育场. Neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 间中有云, 31℃～32℃. Neither side has a clear host-country edge, so the venue read mainly removes normal home advantage and pushes the decision back to market, lineup and tournament context. Higher temperature raises fatigue risk and late-game tempo drop risk.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

76 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 19.2%

2:1 11.6%

1:2 11.1%

2:2 8.1%

1:3 5.6%

0:1 5.8%

3:1 4.6%

1:0 4.6%

FT market: side line -0.25 · total 2.50 · Bucket ah_ou:-0.25/2.5

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 19.2%; 2:1 11.6%; 1:2 11.1%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 54.2%

0:1 19.1%

1:0 13.4%

1:1 6.2%

0:2 3.3%

2:0 2.0%

1:2 0.7%

0:3 0.4%

HT market: side line -0.25 · total 1.00

Ivory Coast win31.1%

Draw33.1%

Norway win35.8%

Ivory Coast expected goals1.45

Norway expected goals1.55

Under 3.565.7%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight48.7%

Sample size76

Europe 1X2home 26.7% / draw 28.7% / away 44.5%

Key Variables

First-goal path Norway benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 33.1%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 65.7%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-07-01 00:30:01 CST (started/finished about 840h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: 2026-06-27 07:00:01 -> 2026-07-01 00:30:01

First snapshotFT handicap -0.5 · total 2.5

Latest marketFT handicap -0.25 · total 2.5

Movement: FT handicap -0.5 -> -0.25 (moved up 0.25); FT total held at 2.5; HT handicap held at -0.25; HT total held at 1.

Pre-match note: The market moved moderately; keep the current ranking, but refresh again after confirmed lineups.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: Norway win · Actual side: Norway win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Ivory Coast vs Norway is 1:1 (19.2%). Norway side rates higher. This match uses a mild World Cup tempo adjustment: finished-match replay suggests World Cup scores are slightly more open than the league baseline, so scorelines above two total goals receive a small lift without forcing a blowout. HT first pick is 0:0 (54.2%); HT draw probability is 60.4%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · schedule, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only · RotoWire · World Cup lineups, injuries and weather context · Wikipedia · group structure, advancement rules and schedule cross-checks