2026 World Cup · Score Research

06-15 07:00 CST · World Cup Group Stage · Separate HT/FT models

Ivory Coast

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 24.4% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 24.4%; 1:2 15.0%; 2:1 10.3% Half-time first pick 0:0 (58.1%)

Ecuador

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Draw carries the highest weight

The handicap leans toward Ecuador; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (58.1%); HT draw probability is 62.6%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. H2H and goal environment FT total 1.75

This match uses a mild World Cup tempo adjustment: finished-match replay suggests World Cup scores are slightly more open than the league baseline, so scorelines above two total goals receive a small lift without forcing a blowout.

4. Venue factor neutral / heat

Venue: 费城体育场. Neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 多云, 28℃～29℃. Neither side has a clear host-country edge, so the venue read mainly removes normal home advantage and pushes the decision back to market, lineup and tournament context. Higher temperature raises fatigue risk and late-game tempo drop risk. Together with the totals line and Under 3.5 probability, the venue layer supports a lower-tempo or lower-margin script rather than pushing the score upward.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

140 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 24.4%

1:2 15.0%

2:1 10.3%

2:2 6.5%

1:3 5.7%

0:0 6.1%

0:1 6.1%

1:0 5.1%

FT market: side line -0.25 · total 1.75 · Bucket ah_ou:-0.25/2.0

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 24.4%; 1:2 15.0%; 2:1 10.3%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 58.1%

1:0 15.5%

0:1 15.5%

1:1 4.3%

0:2 2.1%

2:0 1.9%

1:2 0.7%

2:1 0.7%

HT market: side line 0.00 · total 0.75

Ivory Coast win26.0%

Draw38.1%

Ecuador win35.9%

Ivory Coast expected goals1.28

Ecuador expected goals1.46

Under 3.573.0%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight63.6%

Sample size140

Europe 1X2home 29.0% / draw 33.8% / away 37.1%

Key Variables

First-goal path Ecuador benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 38.1%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 73.0%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-06-15 07:00:01 CST (started/finished about 1218h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: 2026-06-13 23:39:28 -> 2026-06-15 07:00:01

First snapshotFT handicap -0.25 · total 1.75

Latest marketFT handicap -0.25 · total 2

Movement: FT handicap held at -0.25; FT total 1.75 -> 2 (moved up 0.25); HT handicap held at 0; HT total held at 0.75.

Pre-match note: The market moved moderately; keep the current ranking, but refresh again after confirmed lineups.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: draw · Actual side: Ivory Coast win · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Ivory Coast vs Ecuador is 1:1 (24.4%). Draw carries the highest weight. This match uses a mild World Cup tempo adjustment: finished-match replay suggests World Cup scores are slightly more open than the league baseline, so scorelines above two total goals receive a small lift without forcing a blowout. HT first pick is 0:0 (58.1%); HT draw probability is 62.6%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · schedule, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only · RotoWire · World Cup lineups, injuries and weather context · Wikipedia · group structure, advancement rules and schedule cross-checks