2026 World Cup · Score Research

06-17 06:00 CST · World Cup Group Stage · Separate HT/FT models

Iraq

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:2 Probability 14.1% · High-total score cluster High-total score cluster: 1:2 14.1%; 1:3 8.7%; 1:4 5.0%; 0:3 5.8%; 2:3 3.2%; 0:4 3.5%; 2:4 2.1%; 1:5 1.8% Half-time first pick 0:0 (45.3%)

Norway

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Norway side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Norway; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (45.3%); HT draw probability is 51.9%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. H2H and goal environment FT total 3.00

This match uses a mild World Cup tempo adjustment: finished-match replay suggests World Cup scores are slightly more open than the league baseline, so scorelines above two total goals receive a small lift without forcing a blowout.

4. Venue factor neutral / normal weather

Venue: 波士顿球场. Neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 26℃～27℃. Neither side has a clear host-country edge, so the venue read mainly removes normal home advantage and pushes the decision back to market, lineup and tournament context. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Strong sample

505 comparable matches; market bucket support is solid

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:2 14.1%

1:1 12.3%

1:3 8.7%

2:1 6.9%

2:2 6.0%

1:4 5.0%

0:2 7.1%

0:3 5.8%

FT market: side line -2.00 · total 3.00 · Bucket side_ou:away_favored/3.0

Score cluster: High-total score cluster: 1:2 14.1%; 1:3 8.7%; 1:4 5.0%; 0:3 5.8%; 2:3 3.2%; 0:4 3.5%; 2:4 2.1%; 1:5 1.8%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 45.3%

0:1 23.6%

1:0 10.2%

0:2 7.8%

1:1 6.4%

0:3 2.4%

1:2 1.4%

2:0 1.4%

HT market: side line -0.75 · total 1.25

Iraq win15.6%

Draw22.0%

Norway win62.4%

Iraq expected goals1.16

Norway expected goals2.29

Under 3.555.4%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight55.0%

Sample size505

Europe 1X2home 7.3% / draw 14.6% / away 78.2%

Key Variables

First-goal path Norway benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 22.0%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 55.4%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-06-17 07:00:01 CST (started/finished about 1171h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: 2026-06-13 23:39:28 -> 2026-06-17 07:00:01

First snapshotFT handicap -1.75 · total 3

Latest marketFT handicap -0.75 · total 4.5

Movement: FT handicap -1.75 -> -0.75 (moved up 1); FT total 3 -> 4.5 (moved up 1.5); HT handicap -0.75 -> -0.25 (moved up 0.5); HT total 1.25 -> 3.5 (moved up 2.25).

Pre-match note: The market moved materially; rerun both FT and HT models and recheck lineups/injuries before release.

Final Read: 1:2

Predicted side: Norway win · Actual side: Norway win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Iraq vs Norway is 1:2 (14.1%). Norway side rates higher. This match uses a mild World Cup tempo adjustment: finished-match replay suggests World Cup scores are slightly more open than the league baseline, so scorelines above two total goals receive a small lift without forcing a blowout. HT first pick is 0:0 (45.3%); HT draw probability is 51.9%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · schedule, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only · RotoWire · World Cup lineups, injuries and weather context · Wikipedia · group structure, advancement rules and schedule cross-checks