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2026 World Cup · Score Research

06-21 04:00 CST · World Cup Group Stage · Separate HT/FT models

Germany

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 18.0% · Standard score cluster Half-time first pick 0:0 (43.6%)

Ivory Coast

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Germany side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Germany; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (43.6%); HT draw probability is 51.3%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. Qualification Context FT total 3.00

Qualification context: the favorite is in a better group position and may manage tempo or rotation, so the model reduces unconditional blowout assumptions.

4. Venue factor neutral / normal weather

Venue: 多伦多体育场. Neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 20℃～21℃. Neither side has a clear host-country edge, so the venue read mainly removes normal home advantage and pushes the decision back to market, lineup and tournament context. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

106 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 18.0%

3:1 9.4%

1:1 12.0%

3:2 7.0%

2:2 6.5%

1:2 6.9%

4:1 3.7%

2:0 4.8%

FT market: side line 1.25 · total 3.00 · Bucket ah_ou:1.25/3.0

Score cluster: pending

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 43.6%

1:0 25.1%

0:1 10.9%

1:1 7.3%

2:0 6.2%

2:1 1.9%

3:0 1.6%

0:2 1.2%

HT market: side line 0.50 · total 1.25

Germany win61.2%

Draw23.1%

Ivory Coast win15.6%

Germany expected goals2.23

Ivory Coast expected goals1.30

Under 3.554.4%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight57.0%

Sample size106

Europe 1X2home 66.1% / draw 19.2% / away 14.7%

Key Variables

First-goal path Germany benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 23.1%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 54.4%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-06-21 03:00:01 CST (started/finished about 1077h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: 2026-06-14 17:50:24 -> 2026-06-21 03:00:01

First snapshotFT handicap 1 · total 2.75

Latest marketFT handicap 1.25 · total 3

Movement: FT handicap 1 -> 1.25 (moved up 0.25); FT total 2.75 -> 3 (moved up 0.25); HT handicap held at 0.5; HT total 1 -> 1.25 (moved up 0.25).

Pre-match note: The market moved moderately; keep the current ranking, but refresh again after confirmed lineups.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: Germany win · Actual side: Germany win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Germany vs Ivory Coast is 2:1 (18.0%). Germany side rates higher. Qualification context: the favorite is in a better group position and may manage tempo or rotation, so the model reduces unconditional blowout assumptions. HT first pick is 0:0 (43.6%); HT draw probability is 51.3%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · schedule, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only · RotoWire · World Cup lineups, injuries and weather context · Wikipedia · group structure, advancement rules and schedule cross-checks