2026 World Cup · Score Research

07-15 03:00 CST · World Cup Group Stage · Separate HT/FT models

France

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 18.4% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 18.4%; 2:1 15.2%; 2:2 10.8% Half-time first pick 0:0 (62.6%)

Spain

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength France side rates higher

The handicap leans toward France; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (62.6%); HT draw probability is 66.3%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. H2H and goal environment FT total 2.50

This match uses a team-style adjustment: historical goals for, goals against and match tempo classify the teams' attacking or defensive tendency. The signal only reweights candidate scores and does not override the market baseline by itself.

4. Venue factor neutral / heat

Venue: 达拉斯体育场. Neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 31℃～32℃. Neither side has a clear host-country edge, so the venue read mainly removes normal home advantage and pushes the decision back to market, lineup and tournament context. Higher temperature raises fatigue risk and late-game tempo drop risk.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

139 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 18.4%

2:1 15.2%

2:2 10.8%

1:2 11.5%

3:1 5.5%

3:2 3.5%

1:3 3.8%

2:3 3.1%

FT market: side line 0.25 · total 2.50 · Bucket ah_ou:0.25/2.5

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 18.4%; 2:1 15.2%; 2:2 10.8%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 62.6%

1:0 14.9%

0:1 13.4%

1:1 3.6%

2:0 1.8%

0:2 1.7%

2:1 0.6%

1:2 0.6%

HT market: side line 0.00 · total 1.00

France win36.8%

Draw35.1%

Spain win28.1%

France expected goals1.63

Spain expected goals1.47

Under 3.564.0%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight63.5%

Sample size139

Europe 1X2home 40.0% / draw 30.9% / away 29.1%

Key Variables

First-goal path France benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 35.1%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 64.0%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-07-15 03:00:01 CST (started/finished about 502h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: 2026-07-11 07:00:01 -> 2026-07-15 03:00:01

First snapshotFT handicap 0.25 · total 2.5

Latest marketFT handicap 0.25 · total 2.5

Movement: FT handicap held at 0.25; FT total held at 2.5; HT handicap held at 0; HT total 1 -> 0.75 (moved down 0.25).

Pre-match note: Market movement is limited; keep the model ranking unless late odds or lineups change materially.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: France win · Actual side: Spain win · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for France vs Spain is 1:1 (18.4%). France side rates higher. This match uses a team-style adjustment: historical goals for, goals against and match tempo classify the teams' attacking or defensive tendency. The signal only reweights candidate scores and does not override the market baseline by itself. HT first pick is 0:0 (62.6%); HT draw probability is 66.3%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · schedule, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only · RotoWire · World Cup lineups, injuries and weather context · Wikipedia · group structure, advancement rules and schedule cross-checks