2026 World Cup · Score Research

06-17 03:00 CST · World Cup Group Stage · Separate HT/FT models

France

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 15.5% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 2:1 15.5%; 1:1 13.4%; 1:0 10.4% Half-time first pick 0:0 (46.2%)

Senegal

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength France side rates higher

The handicap leans toward France; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (46.2%); HT draw probability is 53.1%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. H2H and goal environment FT total 2.50

This match uses a mild World Cup tempo adjustment: finished-match replay suggests World Cup scores are slightly more open than the league baseline, so scorelines above two total goals receive a small lift without forcing a blowout.

4. Venue factor neutral / normal weather

Venue: 纽约/新泽西体育场. Neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 25℃～26℃. Neither side has a clear host-country edge, so the venue read mainly removes normal home advantage and pushes the decision back to market, lineup and tournament context. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line and Under 3.5 probability, the venue layer supports a lower-tempo or lower-margin script rather than pushing the score upward.

5. Sample and soft factors Thin sample

35 comparable matches; manual review needed

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 15.5%

1:1 13.4%

1:0 10.4%

2:0 9.1%

1:2 6.9%

2:2 5.7%

3:1 5.7%

3:0 5.2%

FT market: side line 1.00 · total 2.50 · Bucket ah_ou:1.0/2.5

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 2:1 15.5%; 1:1 13.4%; 1:0 10.4%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 46.2%

1:0 25.5%

0:1 10.5%

1:1 6.6%

2:0 5.8%

2:1 1.5%

3:0 1.4%

0:2 1.0%

HT market: side line 0.50 · total 1.00

France win57.3%

Draw26.0%

Senegal win16.7%

France expected goals1.79

Senegal expected goals0.97

Under 3.572.2%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight30.4%

Sample size35

Europe 1X2home 65.1% / draw 21.4% / away 13.6%

Key Variables

First-goal path France benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 26.0%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 72.2%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-06-17 03:00:02 CST (started/finished about 1174h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: 2026-06-13 23:39:28 -> 2026-06-17 03:00:02

First snapshotFT handicap 1 · total 2.5

Latest marketFT handicap 1 · total 2.75

Movement: FT handicap held at 1; FT total 2.5 -> 2.75 (moved up 0.25); HT handicap 0.5 -> 0.25 (moved down 0.25); HT total held at 1.

Pre-match note: The market moved moderately; keep the current ranking, but refresh again after confirmed lineups.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: France win · Actual side: France win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for France vs Senegal is 2:1 (15.5%). France side rates higher. This match uses a mild World Cup tempo adjustment: finished-match replay suggests World Cup scores are slightly more open than the league baseline, so scorelines above two total goals receive a small lift without forcing a blowout. HT first pick is 0:0 (46.2%); HT draw probability is 53.1%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · schedule, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only · RotoWire · World Cup lineups, injuries and weather context · Wikipedia · group structure, advancement rules and schedule cross-checks