2026 World Cup · Score Research

06-23 05:00 CST · World Cup Group Stage · Separate HT/FT models

France

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 4:1 Probability 7.6% · High-total score cluster High-total score cluster: 4:1 7.6%; 3:1 8.1%; 4:0 7.1%; 3:0 7.8%; 2:1 7.3%; 5:1 4.6%; 5:0 5.1%; 3:2 3.4% Half-time first pick 1:0 (27.2%)

Iraq

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength France side rates higher

The handicap leans toward France; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 1:0

HT first pick is 1:0 (27.2%); HT draw probability is 42.9%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. Qualification Context FT total 3.75

Qualification context: the underdog is under points pressure and must chase, so the model lifts 3+ goal and favorite-separation candidates.

4. Venue factor neutral / weather risk

Venue: 费城体育场. Neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 微雨, 24℃～25℃. Neither side has a clear host-country edge, so the venue read mainly removes normal home advantage and pushes the decision back to market, lineup and tournament context. Weather creates a disruption signal, so high-tempo attacking chains and blowout tails are treated more carefully. The totals line is high, but the weather-risk signal keeps unconditional open-game assumptions under review.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

205 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

4:1 7.6%

3:1 8.1%

4:0 7.1%

3:0 7.8%

2:1 7.3%

5:1 4.6%

5:0 5.1%

1:1 6.2%

FT market: side line 2.75 · total 3.75 · Bucket side_ou:home_favored/4.0

Score cluster: High-total score cluster: 4:1 7.6%; 3:1 8.1%; 4:0 7.1%; 3:0 7.8%; 2:1 7.3%; 5:1 4.6%; 5:0 5.1%; 3:2 3.4%

Half-Time Score Distribution

1:0 27.2%

0:0 37.0%

2:0 14.9%

1:1 5.7%

3:0 4.3%

0:1 3.9%

0:2 2.0%

1:2 1.5%

HT market: side line 1.25 · total 1.50

France win75.7%

Draw12.8%

Iraq win11.5%

France expected goals3.23

Iraq expected goals1.09

Under 3.536.2%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight45.0%

Sample size205

Europe 1X2home 88.3% / draw 8.0% / away 3.7%

Key Variables

First-goal path France benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 1:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 12.8%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 36.2%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-06-23 03:00:01 CST (started/finished about 1028h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: 2026-06-15 00:18:14 -> 2026-06-23 03:00:01

First snapshotFT handicap 2.25 · total 3

Latest marketFT handicap 2.75 · total 3.75

Movement: FT handicap 2.25 -> 2.75 (moved up 0.5); FT total 3 -> 3.75 (moved up 0.75); HT handicap 1 -> 1.25 (moved up 0.25); HT total 1.25 -> 1.5 (moved up 0.25).

Pre-match note: The market moved materially; rerun both FT and HT models and recheck lineups/injuries before release.

Final Read: 4:1

Predicted side: France win · Actual side: France win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for France vs Iraq is 4:1 (7.6%). France side rates higher. Qualification context: the underdog is under points pressure and must chase, so the model lifts 3+ goal and favorite-separation candidates. Tail-score watch: 6:0 2.9%; 6:1 2.3%; 7:0 1.5%; 7:1 0.9%; 8:1 0.7%; 8:0 0.6%. HT first pick is 1:0 (27.2%); HT draw probability is 42.9%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · schedule, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only · RotoWire · World Cup lineups, injuries and weather context · Wikipedia · group structure, advancement rules and schedule cross-checks