2026 World Cup · Score Research

06-27 11:00 CST · World Cup Group Stage · Separate HT/FT models

Egypt

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 28.7% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 28.7%; 2:1 14.3%; 1:2 13.2% Half-time first pick 0:0 (61.1%)

Iran

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Draw carries the highest weight

The handicap leans toward Egypt; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (61.1%); HT draw probability is 65.0%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. H2H and goal environment FT total 2.00

This match uses a mild World Cup tempo adjustment: finished-match replay suggests World Cup scores are slightly more open than the league baseline, so scorelines above two total goals receive a small lift without forcing a blowout.

4. Venue factor neutral / normal weather

Venue: 西雅图体育场. Neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 16℃～17℃. Neither side has a clear host-country edge, so the venue read mainly removes normal home advantage and pushes the decision back to market, lineup and tournament context. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line and Under 3.5 probability, the venue layer supports a lower-tempo or lower-margin script rather than pushing the score upward.

5. Sample and soft factors Strong sample

289 comparable matches; market bucket support is solid

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 28.7%

2:1 14.3%

1:2 13.2%

2:2 9.6%

3:1 5.5%

3:2 3.7%

1:3 3.1%

1:0 3.4%

FT market: side line 0.25 · total 2.00 · Bucket ah_ou:0.25/2.0

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 28.7%; 2:1 14.3%; 1:2 13.2%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 61.1%

1:0 15.2%

0:1 14.4%

1:1 3.9%

2:0 1.7%

0:2 1.7%

2:1 0.6%

1:2 0.6%

HT market: side line 0.00 · total 0.75

Egypt win32.1%

Draw42.4%

Iran win25.4%

Egypt expected goals1.55

Iran expected goals1.44

Under 3.568.6%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight78.3%

Sample size289

Europe 1X2home 36.0% / draw 36.7% / away 27.3%

Key Variables

First-goal path Egypt benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 42.4%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 68.6%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-06-27 12:00:01 CST (started/finished about 926h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: 2026-06-21 00:30:01 -> 2026-06-27 12:00:01

First snapshotFT handicap 0.5 · total 2

Latest marketFT handicap 0 · total 3

Movement: FT handicap 0.5 -> 0 (moved down 0.5); FT total 2 -> 3 (moved up 1); HT handicap held at 0.25; HT total 0.75 -> 2.5 (moved up 1.75).

Pre-match note: The market moved materially; rerun both FT and HT models and recheck lineups/injuries before release.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: draw · Actual side: draw · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Egypt vs Iran is 1:1 (28.7%). Draw carries the highest weight. This match uses a mild World Cup tempo adjustment: finished-match replay suggests World Cup scores are slightly more open than the league baseline, so scorelines above two total goals receive a small lift without forcing a blowout. HT first pick is 0:0 (61.1%); HT draw probability is 65.0%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · schedule, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only · RotoWire · World Cup lineups, injuries and weather context · Wikipedia · group structure, advancement rules and schedule cross-checks