2026 World Cup · Score Research

06-19 00:00 CST · World Cup Group Stage · Separate HT/FT models

Czech Republic

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 24.8% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 24.8%; 2:1 17.7%; 1:2 9.9% Half-time first pick 0:0 (54.5%)

South Africa

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Czech Republic side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Czech Republic; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (54.5%); HT draw probability is 60.0%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.25

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 捷克排名稍高但进攻一般，南非防守不稳，节奏偏慢，1:1可能性大。

4. Venue factor neutral / normal weather

Venue: 亚特兰大体育场. Neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 24℃～25℃. Neither side has a clear host-country edge, so the venue read mainly removes normal home advantage and pushes the decision back to market, lineup and tournament context. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line and Under 3.5 probability, the venue layer supports a lower-tempo or lower-margin script rather than pushing the score upward.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

195 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 24.8%

2:1 17.7%

1:2 9.9%

2:2 7.2%

3:1 5.7%

3:2 4.6%

4:1 3.2%

1:0 4.2%

FT market: side line 0.50 · total 2.25 · Bucket ah_ou:0.5/2.0

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 24.8%; 2:1 17.7%; 1:2 9.9%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 54.5%

1:0 20.8%

0:1 11.3%

1:1 5.3%

2:0 2.8%

0:2 1.8%

2:1 1.2%

3:0 0.8%

HT market: side line 0.25 · total 1.00

Czech Republic win43.1%

Draw35.7%

South Africa win21.2%

Czech Republic expected goals1.72

South Africa expected goals1.33

Under 3.567.5%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight70.9%

Sample size195

Europe 1X2home 50.7% / draw 27.0% / away 22.3%

Key Variables

First-goal path Czech Republic benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 35.7%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 67.5%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-06-19 00:30:02 CST (started/finished about 1129h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: 2026-06-13 23:39:28 -> 2026-06-19 00:30:02

First snapshotFT handicap 0.75 · total 2.25

Latest marketFT handicap 0.25 · total 2.25

Movement: FT handicap 0.75 -> 0.25 (moved down 0.5); FT total held at 2.25; HT handicap 0.25 -> 0 (moved down 0.25); HT total 1 -> 1.5 (moved up 0.5).

Pre-match note: The market moved materially; rerun both FT and HT models and recheck lineups/injuries before release.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: Czech Republic win · Actual side: draw · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Czech Republic vs South Africa is 1:1 (24.8%). Czech Republic side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 捷克排名稍高但进攻一般，南非防守不稳，节奏偏慢，1:1可能性大。 HT first pick is 0:0 (54.5%); HT draw probability is 60.0%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · schedule, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only · RotoWire · World Cup lineups, injuries and weather context · Wikipedia · group structure, advancement rules and schedule cross-checks