2026 World Cup · Score Research

06-26 04:00 CST · World Cup Group Stage · Separate HT/FT models

Curacao

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:2 Probability 14.3% · High-total score cluster High-total score cluster: 1:2 14.3%; 1:3 8.8%; 1:4 5.1%; 0:3 5.9%; 0:4 3.9%; 2:3 3.3%; 2:4 2.1%; 1:5 1.9% Half-time first pick 0:0 (47.1%)

Ivory Coast

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Ivory Coast side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Ivory Coast; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (47.1%); HT draw probability is 52.1%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. Qualification Context FT total 3.25

Qualification context: the favorite is in a better group position and may manage tempo or rotation, so the model reduces unconditional blowout assumptions.

4. Venue factor neutral / normal weather

Venue: 费城体育场. Neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 26℃～27℃. Neither side has a clear host-country edge, so the venue read mainly removes normal home advantage and pushes the decision back to market, lineup and tournament context. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Strong sample

509 comparable matches; market bucket support is solid

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:2 14.3%

1:1 12.0%

1:3 8.8%

2:1 6.9%

2:2 5.9%

1:4 5.1%

0:2 6.9%

0:3 5.9%

FT market: side line -2.25 · total 3.25 · Bucket side_ou:away_favored/3.0

Score cluster: High-total score cluster: 1:2 14.3%; 1:3 8.8%; 1:4 5.1%; 0:3 5.9%; 0:4 3.9%; 2:3 3.3%; 2:4 2.1%; 1:5 1.9%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 47.1%

0:1 25.0%

0:2 8.7%

1:0 8.5%

1:1 5.0%

0:3 2.7%

2:0 1.0%

1:2 0.9%

HT market: side line -1.00 · total 1.25

Curacao win15.2%

Draw20.9%

Ivory Coast win63.9%

Curacao expected goals1.15

Ivory Coast expected goals2.37

Under 3.554.0%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight55.0%

Sample size509

Europe 1X2home 5.8% / draw 11.5% / away 82.6%

Key Variables

First-goal path Ivory Coast benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 20.9%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 54.0%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-06-26 03:00:01 CST (started/finished about 957h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: 2026-06-19 00:30:02 -> 2026-06-26 03:00:01

First snapshotFT handicap -2.25 · total 3.25

Latest marketFT handicap -2.25 · total 3.25

Movement: FT handicap held at -2.25; FT total held at 3.25; HT handicap held at -1; HT total held at 1.25.

Pre-match note: Market movement is limited; keep the model ranking unless late odds or lineups change materially.

Final Read: 1:2

Predicted side: Ivory Coast win · Actual side: Ivory Coast win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Curacao vs Ivory Coast is 1:2 (14.3%). Ivory Coast side rates higher. Qualification context: the favorite is in a better group position and may manage tempo or rotation, so the model reduces unconditional blowout assumptions. HT first pick is 0:0 (47.1%); HT draw probability is 52.1%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · schedule, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only · RotoWire · World Cup lineups, injuries and weather context · Wikipedia · group structure, advancement rules and schedule cross-checks