2026 World Cup · Score Research

06-28 05:00 CST · World Cup Group Stage · Separate HT/FT models

Croatia

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 24.7% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 24.7%; 2:1 17.9%; 1:2 9.8% Half-time first pick 0:0 (58.5%)

Ghana

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Croatia side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Croatia; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (58.5%); HT draw probability is 63.0%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. H2H and goal environment FT total 2.25

This match uses a mild World Cup tempo adjustment: finished-match replay suggests World Cup scores are slightly more open than the league baseline, so scorelines above two total goals receive a small lift without forcing a blowout.

4. Venue factor neutral / weather risk

Venue: 费城体育场. Neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 微雨, 23℃～24℃. Neither side has a clear host-country edge, so the venue read mainly removes normal home advantage and pushes the decision back to market, lineup and tournament context. Weather creates a disruption signal, so high-tempo attacking chains and blowout tails are treated more carefully. Together with the totals line and Under 3.5 probability, the venue layer supports a lower-tempo or lower-margin script rather than pushing the score upward.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

196 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 24.7%

2:1 17.9%

1:2 9.8%

2:2 6.8%

3:1 5.7%

3:2 4.6%

1:0 4.5%

4:1 2.9%

FT market: side line 0.50 · total 2.25 · Bucket ah_ou:0.5/2.0

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 24.7%; 2:1 17.9%; 1:2 9.8%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 58.5%

1:0 20.8%

0:1 10.3%

1:1 4.4%

2:0 2.2%

0:2 1.4%

2:1 0.9%

3:0 0.6%

HT market: side line 0.25 · total 0.75

Croatia win43.3%

Draw35.4%

Ghana win21.3%

Croatia expected goals1.71

Ghana expected goals1.32

Under 3.568.2%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight71.0%

Sample size196

Europe 1X2home 53.4% / draw 30.0% / away 16.6%

Key Variables

First-goal path Croatia benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 35.4%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 68.2%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-06-28 03:00:01 CST (started/finished about 908h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: 2026-06-21 00:30:01 -> 2026-06-28 03:00:01

First snapshotFT handicap 1 · total 2.25

Latest marketFT handicap 0.5 · total 2.25

Movement: FT handicap 1 -> 0.5 (moved down 0.5); FT total held at 2.25; HT handicap held at 0.25; HT total 1 -> 0.75 (moved down 0.25).

Pre-match note: The market moved materially; rerun both FT and HT models and recheck lineups/injuries before release.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: Croatia win · Actual side: Croatia win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Croatia vs Ghana is 1:1 (24.7%). Croatia side rates higher. This match uses a mild World Cup tempo adjustment: finished-match replay suggests World Cup scores are slightly more open than the league baseline, so scorelines above two total goals receive a small lift without forcing a blowout. HT first pick is 0:0 (58.5%); HT draw probability is 63.0%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · schedule, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only · RotoWire · World Cup lineups, injuries and weather context · Wikipedia · group structure, advancement rules and schedule cross-checks