2026 World Cup · Score Research

07-04 09:30 CST · World Cup Group Stage · Separate HT/FT models

Colombia

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:0 Probability 31.0% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 2:0 31.0%; 1:0 19.6%; 3:0 10.6% Half-time first pick 0:0 (53.2%)

Ghana

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Colombia side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Colombia; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Team condition, ranks and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (53.2%); HT draw probability is 58.4%, so the model still respects early caution. National-ranking adjustment: current ranks are 哥伦比亚 11 / 加纳 65; ranking is only a bounded direction and clean-sheet reweighting signal. Low-underdog-goal adjustment: when low totals, ranking edge, attacking injuries or the AI sidecar all point to weak underdog scoring, the model lifts favorite clean-sheet scripts such as 1-0 and 2-0.

3. H2H and goal environment FT total 2.50

National-ranking adjustment: current ranks are 哥伦比亚 11 / 加纳 65; ranking is only a bounded direction and clean-sheet reweighting signal. Low-underdog-goal adjustment: when low totals, ranking edge, attacking injuries or the AI sidecar all point to weak underdog scoring, the model lifts favorite clean-sheet scripts such as 1-0 and 2-0.

4. Venue factor neutral / heat

Venue: 堪萨斯城体育场. Neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 间中有云, 31℃～32℃. Neither side has a clear host-country edge, so the venue read mainly removes normal home advantage and pushes the decision back to market, lineup and tournament context. Higher temperature raises fatigue risk and late-game tempo drop risk. Together with the totals line and Under 3.5 probability, the venue layer supports a lower-tempo or lower-margin script rather than pushing the score upward.

5. Sample and soft factors Thin sample

37 comparable matches; manual review needed

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:0 31.0%

1:0 19.6%

3:0 10.6%

0:0 8.6%

1:1 6.7%

4:0 4.9%

2:1 5.1%

3:1 2.9%

FT market: side line 1.25 · total 2.50 · Bucket ah_ou:1.25/2.5

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 2:0 31.0%; 1:0 19.6%; 3:0 10.6%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 53.2%

1:0 24.2%

0:1 8.8%

2:0 5.2%

1:1 5.0%

2:1 1.0%

3:0 1.0%

0:2 0.7%

HT market: side line 0.50 · total 1.00

Colombia win79.4%

Draw17.2%

Ghana win3.4%

Colombia expected goals1.90

Ghana expected goals0.29

Under 3.584.6%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight31.6%

Sample size37

Europe 1X2home 68.4% / draw 21.8% / away 9.9%

Key Variables

First-goal path Colombia benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 17.2%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 84.6%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-07-04 07:00:01 CST (started/finished about 759h 50m ago) | Snapshot window: 2026-06-28 12:00:01 -> 2026-07-04 07:00:01

First snapshotFT handicap 0.75 · total 2

Latest marketFT handicap 1.25 · total 2.5

Movement: FT handicap 0.75 -> 1.25 (moved up 0.5); FT total 2 -> 2.5 (moved up 0.5); HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: The market moved materially; rerun both FT and HT models and recheck lineups/injuries before release.

Final Read: 2:0

Predicted side: Colombia win · Actual side: Colombia win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Colombia vs Ghana is 2:0 (31.0%). Colombia side rates higher. National-ranking adjustment: current ranks are 哥伦比亚 11 / 加纳 65; ranking is only a bounded direction and clean-sheet reweighting signal. Low-underdog-goal adjustment: when low totals, ranking edge, attacking injuries or the AI sidecar all point to weak underdog scoring, the model lifts favorite clean-sheet scripts such as 1-0 and 2-0. HT first pick is 0:0 (53.2%); HT draw probability is 58.4%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · schedule, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only · RotoWire · World Cup lineups, injuries and weather context · Wikipedia · group structure, advancement rules and schedule cross-checks