2026 World Cup · Score Research

06-24 10:00 CST · World Cup Group Stage · Separate HT/FT models

Colombia

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:0 Probability 14.0% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:0 14.0%; 1:1 15.6%; 2:0 11.4% Half-time first pick 0:0 (49.6%)

Democratic Rep Congo

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Colombia side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Colombia; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (49.6%); HT draw probability is 55.6%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. H2H and goal environment FT total 2.25

This match uses a mild World Cup tempo adjustment: finished-match replay suggests World Cup scores are slightly more open than the league baseline, so scorelines above two total goals receive a small lift without forcing a blowout.

4. Venue factor neutral / normal weather

Venue: 瓜达拉哈拉体育场. Neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 多云, 23℃～24℃. Neither side has a clear host-country edge, so the venue read mainly removes normal home advantage and pushes the decision back to market, lineup and tournament context. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line and Under 3.5 probability, the venue layer supports a lower-tempo or lower-margin script rather than pushing the score upward.

5. Sample and soft factors Thin sample

27 comparable matches; manual review needed

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:0 14.0%

1:1 15.6%

2:0 11.4%

2:1 9.8%

0:0 8.0%

3:0 6.3%

3:1 5.3%

1:2 5.4%

FT market: side line 1.00 · total 2.25 · Bucket ah_ou:1.0/2.0

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:0 14.0%; 1:1 15.6%; 2:0 11.4%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 49.6%

1:0 25.8%

0:1 9.7%

1:1 5.7%

2:0 5.0%

2:1 1.1%

3:0 1.1%

0:2 0.8%

HT market: side line 0.50 · total 1.00

Colombia win56.8%

Draw28.5%

Democratic Rep Congo win14.7%

Colombia expected goals1.70

Democratic Rep Congo expected goals0.81

Under 3.577.0%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight25.2%

Sample size27

Europe 1X2home 62.2% / draw 23.9% / away 13.9%

Key Variables

First-goal path Colombia benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 28.5%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 77.0%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-06-24 07:00:02 CST (started/finished about 999h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: 2026-06-18 03:00:01 -> 2026-06-24 07:00:02

First snapshotFT handicap 1 · total 2.25

Latest marketFT handicap 1 · total 2.25

Movement: FT handicap held at 1; FT total held at 2.25; HT handicap held at 0.5; HT total held at 1.

Pre-match note: Market movement is limited; keep the model ranking unless late odds or lineups change materially.

Final Read: 1:0

Predicted side: Colombia win · Actual side: Colombia win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Colombia vs Democratic Rep Congo is 1:0 (14.0%). Colombia side rates higher. This match uses a mild World Cup tempo adjustment: finished-match replay suggests World Cup scores are slightly more open than the league baseline, so scorelines above two total goals receive a small lift without forcing a blowout. HT first pick is 0:0 (49.6%); HT draw probability is 55.6%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · schedule, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only · RotoWire · World Cup lineups, injuries and weather context · Wikipedia · group structure, advancement rules and schedule cross-checks