2026 World Cup · Score Research

06-19 06:00 CST · World Cup Group Stage · Separate HT/FT models

Canada

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 4:1 Probability 6.2% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 4:1 6.2%; 2:1 11.6%; 1:1 12.6%; 3:1 8.6% Half-time first pick 1:0 (29.5%)

Qatar

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Canada side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Canada; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 1:0

HT first pick is 1:0 (29.5%); HT draw probability is 45.0%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.75

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 加拿大主场实力占优，节奏偏慢但压制力强；卡塔尔防守反击偷球概率低；天气正常，阵容风险中等。

4. Venue factor host edge / controlled

Venue: 温哥华BC体育场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 22℃～23℃. Canada has a domestic-tournament setting here; treat it as a small crowd/familiarity edge, not a standalone reason to override the market. The stadium is treated as a roof/controlled-environment candidate; with a higher total, this supports sustained tempo for technical or pressing teams. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

52 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

4:1 6.2%

2:1 11.6%

1:1 12.6%

3:1 8.6%

2:0 9.1%

1:0 8.2%

3:0 6.9%

2:2 5.3%

FT market: side line 1.50 · total 2.75 · Bucket ah_ou:1.5/3.0

Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 4:1 6.2%; 2:1 11.6%; 1:1 12.6%; 3:1 8.6%

Half-Time Score Distribution

1:0 29.5%

0:0 37.7%

2:0 10.3%

1:1 7.0%

0:1 7.0%

3:0 2.9%

2:1 2.1%

4:0 1.2%

HT market: side line 0.75 · total 1.25

Canada win66.7%

Draw21.9%

Qatar win11.5%

Canada expected goals2.30

Qatar expected goals0.97

Under 3.558.9%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight39.4%

Sample size52

Europe 1X2home 73.9% / draw 17.9% / away 8.2%

Key Variables

First-goal path Canada benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 1:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 21.9%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 58.9%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-06-19 07:00:01 CST (started/finished about 1123h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: 2026-06-13 23:39:28 -> 2026-06-19 07:00:01

First snapshotFT handicap 1.5 · total 2.5

Latest marketFT handicap 2 · total 5.25

Movement: FT handicap 1.5 -> 2 (moved up 0.5); FT total 2.5 -> 5.25 (moved up 2.75); HT handicap 0.5 -> 0.25 (moved down 0.25); HT total 1 -> 3.5 (moved up 2.5).

Pre-match note: The market moved materially; rerun both FT and HT models and recheck lineups/injuries before release.

Final Read: 4:1

Predicted side: Canada win · Actual side: Canada win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Canada vs Qatar is 4:1 (6.2%). Canada side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 加拿大主场实力占优，节奏偏慢但压制力强；卡塔尔防守反击偷球概率低；天气正常，阵容风险中等。 HT first pick is 1:0 (29.5%); HT draw probability is 45.0%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · schedule, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only · RotoWire · World Cup lineups, injuries and weather context · Wikipedia · group structure, advancement rules and schedule cross-checks