2026 World Cup · Score Research

07-05 01:00 CST · World Cup Group Stage · Separate HT/FT models

Canada

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:2 Probability 15.2% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:2 15.2%; 1:1 15.8%; 2:1 8.8% Half-time first pick 0:0 (59.9%)

Morocco

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Morocco side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Morocco; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Team condition, ranks and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (59.9%); HT draw probability is 64.8%, so the model still respects early caution. National-ranking adjustment: current ranks are 加拿大 30 / 摩洛哥 6; ranking is only a bounded direction and clean-sheet reweighting signal.

3. H2H and goal environment FT total 2.25

National-ranking adjustment: current ranks are 加拿大 30 / 摩洛哥 6; ranking is only a bounded direction and clean-sheet reweighting signal.

4. Venue factor neutral / heat

Venue: 休斯顿体育场. Neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 多云, 30℃～31℃. Neither side has a clear host-country edge, so the venue read mainly removes normal home advantage and pushes the decision back to market, lineup and tournament context. Higher temperature raises fatigue risk and late-game tempo drop risk. Together with the totals line and Under 3.5 probability, the venue layer supports a lower-tempo or lower-margin script rather than pushing the score upward.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

66 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:2 15.2%

1:1 15.8%

2:1 8.8%

0:1 9.4%

2:2 6.0%

1:3 5.6%

0:0 6.4%

0:2 6.1%

FT market: side line -0.50 · total 2.25 · Bucket ah_ou:-0.5/2.0

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:2 15.2%; 1:1 15.8%; 2:1 8.8%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 59.9%

0:1 17.7%

1:0 11.5%

1:1 4.9%

0:2 3.2%

2:0 1.6%

1:2 0.5%

0:3 0.4%

HT market: side line -0.25 · total 0.75

Canada win21.2%

Draw29.1%

Morocco win49.7%

Canada expected goals1.10

Morocco expected goals1.66

Under 3.572.2%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight45.2%

Sample size66

Europe 1X2home 17.8% / draw 28.6% / away 53.6%

Key Variables

First-goal path Morocco benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 29.1%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 72.2%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-07-05 00:30:01 CST (started/finished about 744h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: 2026-06-30 12:00:01 -> 2026-07-05 00:30:01

First snapshotFT handicap -0.5 · total 2.25

Latest marketFT handicap -0.5 · total 2.25

Movement: FT handicap held at -0.5; FT total held at 2.25; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market movement is limited; keep the model ranking unless late odds or lineups change materially.

Final Read: 1:2

Predicted side: Morocco win · Actual side: Morocco win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Canada vs Morocco is 1:2 (15.2%). Morocco side rates higher. National-ranking adjustment: current ranks are 加拿大 30 / 摩洛哥 6; ranking is only a bounded direction and clean-sheet reweighting signal. HT first pick is 0:0 (59.9%); HT draw probability is 64.8%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · schedule, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only · RotoWire · World Cup lineups, injuries and weather context · Wikipedia · group structure, advancement rules and schedule cross-checks