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2026 World Cup · Score Research

06-13 03:00 CST · World Cup Group Stage · Separate HT/FT models

Canada

Home side / left blind-prior direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 16.7% · Standard score cluster Half-time first pick 0:0 (40.9%)

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Away side / right blind-prior direction

Five-Factor Read

1. No-market strength Canada side rates higher

This is a pre-match blind record; the rank, venue and historical-market prior leans toward Canada. The match result was not read.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (40.9%); HT draw probability is 49.0%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. H2H and goal environment FT total 2.50

The total line and model distribution lean low-scoring, with density around 0-0, 1-0, 1-1 and 2-1.

4. Venue factor host edge / heat

Venue: 多伦多体育场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 28℃～29℃. Canada has a domestic-tournament setting here; treat it as a small crowd/familiarity edge, not a standalone reason to override the market. Higher temperature raises fatigue risk and late-game tempo drop risk. Together with the totals line and Under 3.5 probability, the venue layer supports a lower-tempo or lower-margin script rather than pushing the score upward.

5. Sample and soft factors Pre-match blind record

This prediction is stored as a pre-match blind record; historical odds and results are used only for later review

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 16.7%

1:1 12.5%

1:0 10.8%

2:0 10.0%

3:1 6.2%

1:2 6.1%

FT blind baseline: side line 1.00 · total 2.50 · Bucket blind_prior:ah_ou:1.0/2.5

Score cluster: pending

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 40.9%

1:0 26.4%

0:1 10.8%

1:1 7.6%

2:0 6.8%

2:1 2.1%

HT blind baseline: side line 0.50 · total 1.25

Canada win61.8%

Draw24.2%

Bosnia and Herzegovina win14.0%

Canada expected goals1.87

Bosnia and Herzegovina expected goals0.91

Under 3.572.3%

FT temperature0.90

Empirical weight29.8%

Sample size34

Europe 1X2not used

Key Variables

First-goal path Canada benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 24.2%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 72.3%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Blind Record · Historical Odds Review

Recorded 2026-08-05 01:19:19 (started/finished about 1270h 20m ago)

FT pre-match baselineSide line 1 · total 2.5

HT pre-match baselineSide line 0.5 · total 1.25

Data boundary: this match is stored from a pre-match blind prediction and does not read the finished score. Historical odds and results are used only for later review and audit.

Use: keep already-tested blind predictions inside the full schedule report and review them consistently with later model versions.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: Canada win · Actual side: draw · side missed

This page is generated from a pre-match blind record: at prediction time it used schedule identity, team ranking, venue status and local historical distributions, without reading the match result. Historical odds are used only for later review. The model's full-time first pick for Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina is 2:1 (16.7%). Canada side rates higher. The total line and model distribution lean low-scoring, with density around 0-0, 1-0, 1-1 and 2-1. HT first pick is 0:0 (40.9%); HT draw probability is 49.0%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · schedule, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only · RotoWire · World Cup lineups, injuries and weather context · Wikipedia · group structure, advancement rules and schedule cross-checks