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2026 World Cup · Score Research

06-20 08:30 CST · World Cup Group Stage · Separate HT/FT models

Br

Brazil

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 4:1 Probability 8.4% · Standard score cluster Half-time first pick 1:0 (26.5%)
Ha

Haiti

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Brazil side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Brazil; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 1:0

HT first pick is 1:0 (26.5%); HT draw probability is 42.3%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. Qualification Context FT total 3.75

Qualification context: the underdog is under points pressure and must chase, so the model lifts 3+ goal and favorite-separation candidates.

4. Venue factor neutral / heat

Venue: 费城体育场. Neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 29℃～30℃. Neither side has a clear host-country edge, so the venue read mainly removes normal home advantage and pushes the decision back to market, lineup and tournament context. Higher temperature raises fatigue risk and late-game tempo drop risk. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

204 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

4:1 8.4%
3:1 8.4%
5:1 5.2%
2:1 7.2%
4:0 6.1%
3:0 6.6%
5:0 4.4%
1:1 6.3%
FT market: side line 2.50 · total 3.75 · Bucket side_ou:home_favored/4.0
Score cluster: pending

Half-Time Score Distribution

1:0 26.5%
0:0 35.6%
2:0 14.5%
1:1 6.3%
3:0 4.5%
0:1 4.4%
0:2 2.3%
1:2 1.7%
HT market: side line 1.25 · total 1.50
Brazil win75.3%
Draw13.0%
Haiti win11.7%
Brazil expected goals3.28
Haiti expected goals1.16
Under 3.534.0%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight45.0%
Sample size204
Europe 1X2home 87.1% / draw 8.7% / away 4.2%

Key Variables

First-goal path Brazil benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 1:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 13.0%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 34.0%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-06-20 07:00:01 CST (started/finished about 1096h 50m ago) | Snapshot window: 2026-06-14 17:50:24 -> 2026-06-20 07:00:01

First snapshotFT handicap 2.5 · total 3.5
Latest marketFT handicap 2.5 · total 3.75

Movement: FT handicap held at 2.5; FT total 3.5 -> 3.75 (moved up 0.25); HT handicap 1 -> 1.25 (moved up 0.25); HT total held at 1.5.

Pre-match note: The market moved moderately; keep the current ranking, but refresh again after confirmed lineups.

Final Read: 4:1

Predicted side: Brazil win · Actual side: Brazil win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Brazil vs Haiti is 4:1 (8.4%). Brazil side rates higher. Qualification context: the underdog is under points pressure and must chase, so the model lifts 3+ goal and favorite-separation candidates. Tail-score watch: 6:1 2.7%; 6:0 2.6%; 7:0 1.3%; 7:1 1.0%; 8:1 0.9%; 8:0 0.6%. HT first pick is 1:0 (26.5%); HT draw probability is 42.3%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · schedule, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only · RotoWire · World Cup lineups, injuries and weather context · Wikipedia · group structure, advancement rules and schedule cross-checks