2026 World Cup · Score Research

06-22 03:00 CST · World Cup Group Stage · Separate HT/FT models

Belgium

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 19.7% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 2:1 19.7%; 1:1 13.4%; 3:1 9.2%; 3:2 6.2% Half-time first pick 0:0 (48.3%)

Iran

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Belgium side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Belgium; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (48.3%); HT draw probability is 54.6%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. Qualification Context FT total 2.75

Qualification context: the favorite needs a win, but the underdog has real draw value, so the model trims blowout tails and lifts narrow-win / low-draw outcomes.

4. Venue factor neutral / normal weather

Venue: 洛杉矶体育场. Neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 26℃～27℃. Neither side has a clear host-country edge, so the venue read mainly removes normal home advantage and pushes the decision back to market, lineup and tournament context. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

106 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 19.7%

1:1 13.4%

3:1 9.2%

3:2 6.2%

2:2 6.1%

1:2 6.9%

1:0 6.5%

2:0 5.9%

FT market: side line 1.25 · total 2.75 · Bucket ah_ou:1.25/3.0

Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 2:1 19.7%; 1:1 13.4%; 3:1 9.2%; 3:2 6.2%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 48.3%

1:0 25.9%

0:1 9.8%

1:1 6.0%

2:0 5.4%

2:1 1.3%

3:0 1.2%

0:2 0.8%

HT market: side line 0.50 · total 1.00

Belgium win60.2%

Draw24.8%

Iran win15.1%

Belgium expected goals2.03

Iran expected goals1.20

Under 3.561.8%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight57.0%

Sample size106

Europe 1X2home 68.5% / draw 19.8% / away 11.7%

Key Variables

First-goal path Belgium benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 24.8%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 61.8%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-06-22 03:00:01 CST (started/finished about 1054h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: 2026-06-15 00:18:14 -> 2026-06-22 03:00:01

First snapshotFT handicap 1.25 · total 2.5

Latest marketFT handicap 1.25 · total 2.5

Movement: FT handicap held at 1.25; FT total held at 2.5; HT handicap held at 0.5; HT total 1 -> 0.75 (moved down 0.25).

Pre-match note: Market movement is limited; keep the model ranking unless late odds or lineups change materially.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: Belgium win · Actual side: draw · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Belgium vs Iran is 2:1 (19.7%). Belgium side rates higher. Qualification context: the favorite needs a win, but the underdog has real draw value, so the model trims blowout tails and lifts narrow-win / low-draw outcomes. HT first pick is 0:0 (48.3%); HT draw probability is 54.6%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · schedule, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only · RotoWire · World Cup lineups, injuries and weather context · Wikipedia · group structure, advancement rules and schedule cross-checks