USL Championship · Score Research

07-19 07:00 CST · USL Championship · Separate HT/FT models

Sporting Jax

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 16.5% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 1:1 16.5%; 2:1 15.6%; 1:2 9.8%; 2:2 9.5% Half-time first pick 0:0 (61.2%)

Brooklyn FC

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Sporting Jax side rates higher

The Asian handicap is close to level, with no clear market gap.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (61.2%); HT draw probability is 65.2%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.75

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队防守漏但节奏略快，客队攻击弱，高温可能降速，市场平手，主队略优。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 31℃～32℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Higher temperature raises fatigue risk and late-game tempo drop risk. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

219 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 16.5%

2:1 15.6%

1:2 9.8%

2:2 9.5%

1:3 5.9%

3:1 5.5%

3:2 5.2%

2:3 3.9%

FT market: side line 0.00 · total 2.75 · Bucket ah_ou:0.0/3.0

Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 1:1 16.5%; 2:1 15.6%; 1:2 9.8%; 2:2 9.5%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 61.2%

1:0 15.3%

0:1 13.2%

1:1 3.9%

2:0 2.1%

0:2 1.8%

2:1 0.8%

1:2 0.7%

HT market: side line 0.00 · total 1.25

Sporting Jax win41.4%

Draw29.8%

Brooklyn FC win28.8%

Sporting Jax expected goals1.88

Brooklyn FC expected goals1.65

Under 3.554.1%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight73.2%

Sample size219

Europe 1X2home 35.6% / draw 24.8% / away 39.6%

Key Variables

First-goal path Sporting Jax benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 29.8%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 54.1%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:19 CST (started/finished about 402h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:19

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap 0 · total 2.75

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: Sporting Jax win · Actual side: draw · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Sporting Jax vs Brooklyn FC is 1:1 (16.5%). Sporting Jax side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队防守漏但节奏略快，客队攻击弱，高温可能降速，市场平手，主队略优。 HT first pick is 0:0 (61.2%); HT draw probability is 65.2%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only