USL Championship · Score Research

07-26 10:00 CST · USL Championship · Separate HT/FT models

Oakland Roots

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 17.3% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 17.3%; 2:1 13.6%; 2:2 7.3% Half-time first pick 0:0 (62.2%)

Sacramento Republic FC

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Oakland Roots side rates higher

The Asian handicap is close to level, with no clear market gap.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (62.2%); HT draw probability is 66.0%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.50

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 双方实力接近，排名相近，节奏偏慢，防守一般，无突出动机，天气良好。模型显示最可能1:1，但主队略优。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 间中有云, 19°C. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

101 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 17.3%

2:1 13.6%

2:2 7.3%

1:2 6.9%

1:0 6.2%

3:1 6.1%

3:2 6.0%

0:1 4.7%

FT market: side line 0.00 · total 2.50 · Bucket ah_ou:0.0/2.5

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 17.3%; 2:1 13.6%; 2:2 7.3%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 62.2%

1:0 15.3%

0:1 13.2%

1:1 3.7%

2:0 1.9%

0:2 1.7%

2:1 0.6%

1:2 0.6%

HT market: side line 0.00 · total 1.00

Oakland Roots win42.7%

Draw30.3%

Sacramento Republic FC win27.0%

Oakland Roots expected goals1.70

Sacramento Republic FC expected goals1.46

Under 3.561.0%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight55.8%

Sample size101

Europe 1X2home 35.4% / draw 26.3% / away 38.3%

Key Variables

First-goal path Oakland Roots benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 30.3%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 61.0%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:19 CST (started/finished about 231h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:19

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap 0 · total 2.5

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: Oakland Roots win · Actual side: Sacramento Republic FC win · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Oakland Roots vs Sacramento Republic FC is 1:1 (17.3%). Oakland Roots side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 双方实力接近，排名相近，节奏偏慢，防守一般，无突出动机，天气良好。模型显示最可能1:1，但主队略优。 HT first pick is 0:0 (62.2%); HT draw probability is 66.0%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only