USL Championship · Score Research

07-26 07:00 CST · USL Championship · Separate HT/FT models

Miami FC

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:2 Probability 14.0% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 1:2 14.0%; 1:3 6.6%; 0:1 5.5%; 0:2 5.0% Half-time first pick 0:0 (56.9%)

Tampa Bay Rowdies

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Tampa Bay Rowdies side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Tampa Bay Rowdies; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (56.9%); HT draw probability is 62.9%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.75

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队防守稳固且整体实力占优，主队进攻乏力，预计客队小胜可能性大。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 间中有云, 28°C. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Higher temperature raises fatigue risk and late-game tempo drop risk. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

86 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:2 14.0%

1:3 6.6%

0:1 5.5%

0:2 5.0%

1:4 3.1%

0:3 2.7%

2:3 2.6%

2:4 2.4%

FT market: side line -0.75 · total 2.75 · Bucket ah_ou:-0.75/3.0

Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 1:2 14.0%; 1:3 6.6%; 0:1 5.5%; 0:2 5.0%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 56.9%

0:1 16.9%

1:0 12.4%

1:1 5.9%

0:2 3.5%

2:0 2.0%

1:2 0.9%

0:3 0.5%

HT market: side line -0.25 · total 1.25

Miami FC win24.1%

Draw28.8%

Tampa Bay Rowdies win47.0%

Miami FC expected goals1.35

Tampa Bay Rowdies expected goals1.83

Under 3.562.2%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight51.8%

Sample size86

Europe 1X2home 20.8% / draw 22.3% / away 56.9%

Key Variables

First-goal path Tampa Bay Rowdies benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 28.8%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 62.2%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:19 CST (started/finished about 234h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:19

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap -0.75 · total 2.75

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:2

Predicted side: Tampa Bay Rowdies win · Actual side: Tampa Bay Rowdies win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Miami FC vs Tampa Bay Rowdies is 1:2 (14.0%). Tampa Bay Rowdies side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队防守稳固且整体实力占优，主队进攻乏力，预计客队小胜可能性大。 HT first pick is 0:0 (56.9%); HT draw probability is 62.9%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only