USL Championship · Score Research

08-02 07:00 CST · USL Championship · Separate HT/FT models

Miami FC

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 19.4% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 19.4%; 1:2 10.6%; 2:1 8.6% Half-time first pick 0:0 (58.5%)

Detroit City

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Detroit City side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Detroit City; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (58.5%); HT draw probability is 64.0%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.50

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队排名占优但攻击指数弱，主队主场防守尚可；雷阵雨降低节奏，模型倾向小比分平局或客胜一球。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 雷阵雨, 23℃～24℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather creates a disruption signal, so high-tempo attacking chains and blowout tails are treated more carefully. Together with the totals line and Under 3.5 probability, the venue layer supports a lower-tempo or lower-margin script rather than pushing the score upward.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

53 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 19.4%

1:2 10.6%

2:1 8.6%

0:1 8.0%

2:2 7.0%

1:0 6.2%

0:0 5.3%

0:2 5.1%

FT market: side line -0.50 · total 2.50 · Bucket ah_ou:-0.5/2.5

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 19.4%; 1:2 10.6%; 2:1 8.6%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 58.5%

0:1 16.9%

1:0 12.4%

1:1 5.4%

0:2 3.2%

2:0 1.9%

1:2 0.7%

0:3 0.4%

HT market: side line -0.25 · total 1.00

Miami FC win28.0%

Draw32.9%

Detroit City win39.1%

Miami FC expected goals1.29

Detroit City expected goals1.52

Under 3.569.3%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight39.8%

Sample size53

Europe 1X2home 25.6% / draw 25.6% / away 48.8%

Key Variables

First-goal path Detroit City benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 32.9%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 69.3%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:19 CST (started/finished about 64h 50m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:19

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap -0.5 · total 2.5

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: Detroit City win · Actual side: draw · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Miami FC vs Detroit City is 1:1 (19.4%). Detroit City side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队排名占优但攻击指数弱，主队主场防守尚可；雷阵雨降低节奏，模型倾向小比分平局或客胜一球。 HT first pick is 0:0 (58.5%); HT draw probability is 64.0%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only