USL Championship · Score Research

07-05 04:00 CST · USL Championship · Separate HT/FT models

Indy Eleven

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:2 Probability 15.6% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 1:2 15.6%; 1:1 15.0%; 2:1 12.3%; 2:2 9.4% Half-time first pick 0:0 (55.4%)

Charleston Battery

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Charleston Battery side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Charleston Battery; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (55.4%); HT draw probability is 60.6%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. H2H and goal environment FT total 3.00

The total line is elevated, so wider scorelines are live, but exact scores remain ranked by model probability.

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 间中有云, 33°C. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Higher temperature raises fatigue risk and late-game tempo drop risk. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

164 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:2 15.6%

1:1 15.0%

2:1 12.3%

2:2 9.4%

1:3 6.3%

3:1 5.8%

3:2 3.9%

1:4 2.8%

FT market: side line -0.25 · total 3.00 · Bucket ah_ou:-0.25/3.0

Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 1:2 15.6%; 1:1 15.0%; 2:1 12.3%; 2:2 9.4%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 55.4%

1:0 15.8%

0:1 15.5%

1:1 5.0%

0:2 2.4%

2:0 2.2%

1:2 1.0%

2:1 1.0%

HT market: side line 0.00 · total 1.25

Indy Eleven win32.3%

Draw28.4%

Charleston Battery win39.3%

Indy Eleven expected goals1.71

Charleston Battery expected goals1.84

Under 3.554.5%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight67.2%

Sample size164

Europe 1X2home 34.6% / draw 24.8% / away 40.6%

Key Variables

First-goal path Charleston Battery benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 28.4%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 54.5%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:19 CST (started/finished about 741h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:19

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap -0.25 · total 3

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:2

Predicted side: Charleston Battery win · Actual side: Indy Eleven win · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Indy Eleven vs Charleston Battery is 1:2 (15.6%). Charleston Battery side rates higher. The total line is elevated, so wider scorelines are live, but exact scores remain ranked by model probability. HT first pick is 0:0 (55.4%); HT draw probability is 60.6%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only