USL Championship · Score Research

07-26 08:30 CST · USL Championship · Separate HT/FT models

FC Tulsa

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 18.4% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 18.4%; 2:1 13.5%; 1:2 6.9% Half-time first pick 0:0 (62.2%)

Lexington

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength FC Tulsa side rates higher

The Asian handicap is close to level, with no clear market gap.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (62.2%); HT draw probability is 66.0%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.50

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 高温降低节奏，主队防守漏洞大但节奏慢，客队攻击一般，平手盘可能偏向低进球平局。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 间中有云, 32°C. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Higher temperature raises fatigue risk and late-game tempo drop risk.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

101 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 18.4%

2:1 13.5%

1:2 6.9%

2:2 6.9%

1:0 6.6%

3:1 5.9%

3:2 5.6%

0:1 5.0%

FT market: side line 0.00 · total 2.50 · Bucket ah_ou:0.0/2.5

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 18.4%; 2:1 13.5%; 1:2 6.9%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 62.2%

1:0 15.3%

0:1 13.2%

1:1 3.6%

2:0 1.9%

0:2 1.7%

2:1 0.6%

1:2 0.6%

HT market: side line 0.00 · total 1.00

FC Tulsa win42.0%

Draw31.4%

Lexington win26.6%

FC Tulsa expected goals1.64

Lexington expected goals1.41

Under 3.563.6%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight55.8%

Sample size101

Europe 1X2home 34.7% / draw 27.1% / away 38.2%

Key Variables

First-goal path FC Tulsa benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 31.4%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 63.6%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:19 CST (started/finished about 232h 50m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:19

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap 0 · total 2.5

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: FC Tulsa win · Actual side: draw · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for FC Tulsa vs Lexington is 1:1 (18.4%). FC Tulsa side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 高温降低节奏，主队防守漏洞大但节奏慢，客队攻击一般，平手盘可能偏向低进球平局。 HT first pick is 0:0 (62.2%); HT draw probability is 66.0%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only