← Back to USL Championship center 中文

USL Championship · Score Research

07-19 08:30 CST · USL Championship · Separate HT/FT models

FC

FC Tulsa

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 13.9% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 2:1 13.9%; 3:1 9.1%; 3:2 5.3%; 4:1 3.5% Half-time first pick 0:0 (59.6%)
El

El Paso Locomotive FC

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength FC Tulsa side rates higher

The handicap leans toward FC Tulsa; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (59.6%); HT draw probability is 64.3%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.75

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队防守漏洞大，客队攻击弱但可能偷球；节奏偏慢，总进球中性。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 天晴, 26℃～27℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Strong sample

259 comparable matches; market bucket support is solid

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 13.9%
3:1 9.1%
3:2 5.3%
4:1 3.5%
2:0 2.6%
1:0 2.3%
5:1 2.1%
4:2 2.1%
FT market: side line 0.25 · total 2.75 · Bucket ah_ou:0.25/3.0
Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 2:1 13.9%; 3:1 9.1%; 3:2 5.3%; 4:1 3.5%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 59.6%
1:0 19.8%
0:1 9.3%
1:1 4.5%
2:0 2.6%
0:2 1.4%
2:1 1.0%
3:0 0.7%
HT market: side line 0.25 · total 1.25
FC Tulsa win44.9%
Draw29.6%
El Paso Locomotive FC win25.4%
FC Tulsa expected goals2.01
El Paso Locomotive FC expected goals1.58
Under 3.551.1%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight76.4%
Sample size259
Europe 1X2home 45.1% / draw 25.1% / away 29.8%

Key Variables

First-goal path FC Tulsa benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 29.6%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 51.1%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:19 CST (started/finished about 400h 50m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:19

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 0.25 · total 2.75

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: FC Tulsa win · Actual side: FC Tulsa win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for FC Tulsa vs El Paso Locomotive FC is 2:1 (13.9%). FC Tulsa side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队防守漏洞大，客队攻击弱但可能偷球；节奏偏慢，总进球中性。 HT first pick is 0:0 (59.6%); HT draw probability is 64.3%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only