USL Championship · Score Research

07-26 07:00 CST · USL Championship · Separate HT/FT models

Detroit City

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 16.6% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 2:1 16.6%; 1:1 13.7%; 3:1 10.3%; 1:2 7.6% Half-time first pick 0:0 (60.4%)

Las Vegas Lights

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Detroit City side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Detroit City; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (60.4%); HT draw probability is 64.7%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.75

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队排名高但进攻弱，客队防守差但节奏慢，主队小胜概率高。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: 奥本山宫殿球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 间中有云, 26°C. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

144 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 16.6%

1:1 13.7%

3:1 10.3%

1:2 7.6%

1:0 5.5%

2:0 5.1%

4:2 4.7%

2:2 4.3%

FT market: side line 1.00 · total 2.75 · Bucket ah_ou:1.0/3.0

Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 2:1 16.6%; 1:1 13.7%; 3:1 10.3%; 1:2 7.6%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 60.4%

1:0 20.1%

0:1 8.9%

1:1 4.2%

2:0 2.6%

0:2 1.2%

2:1 0.9%

3:0 0.7%

HT market: side line 0.25 · total 1.00

Detroit City win60.9%

Draw22.5%

Las Vegas Lights win16.6%

Detroit City expected goals2.22

Las Vegas Lights expected goals1.26

Under 3.556.8%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight64.3%

Sample size144

Europe 1X2home 58.1% / draw 22.9% / away 19.0%

Key Variables

First-goal path Detroit City benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 22.5%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 56.8%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:19 CST (started/finished about 234h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:19

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap 1 · total 2.75

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: Detroit City win · Actual side: Las Vegas Lights win · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Detroit City vs Las Vegas Lights is 2:1 (16.6%). Detroit City side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队排名高但进攻弱，客队防守差但节奏慢，主队小胜概率高。 HT first pick is 0:0 (60.4%); HT draw probability is 64.7%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only