USL Championship · Score Research

07-19 07:30 CST · USL Championship · Separate HT/FT models

Charleston Battery

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 21.1% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 21.1%; 2:1 13.7%; 1:2 8.2% Half-time first pick 0:0 (60.7%)

Sacramento Republic FC

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Charleston Battery side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Charleston Battery; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (60.7%); HT draw probability is 65.0%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.50

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队防守好节奏慢，客队攻击弱，预计低进球，主队小胜或平局。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 阴天, 26℃～27℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

104 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 21.1%

2:1 13.7%

1:2 8.2%

3:1 7.4%

2:2 7.0%

1:0 6.5%

2:0 6.0%

3:2 4.8%

FT market: side line 0.50 · total 2.50 · Bucket ah_ou:0.5/2.5

Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 21.1%; 2:1 13.7%; 1:2 8.2%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 60.7%

1:0 19.9%

0:1 9.0%

1:1 4.1%

2:0 2.5%

0:2 1.2%

2:1 0.9%

3:0 0.6%

HT market: side line 0.25 · total 1.00

Charleston Battery win47.7%

Draw33.3%

Sacramento Republic FC win19.0%

Charleston Battery expected goals1.76

Sacramento Republic FC expected goals1.22

Under 3.567.5%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight56.5%

Sample size104

Europe 1X2home 49.0% / draw 26.6% / away 24.4%

Key Variables

First-goal path Charleston Battery benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 33.3%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 67.5%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:19 CST (started/finished about 401h 50m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:19

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap 0.5 · total 2.5

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: Charleston Battery win · Actual side: draw · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Charleston Battery vs Sacramento Republic FC is 1:1 (21.1%). Charleston Battery side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队防守好节奏慢，客队攻击弱，预计低进球，主队小胜或平局。 HT first pick is 0:0 (60.7%); HT draw probability is 65.0%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only