USL Championship · Score Research

07-26 07:00 CST · USL Championship · Separate HT/FT models

Birmingham Legion

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 19.7% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 1:1 19.7%; 2:1 14.1%; 1:2 9.6%; 2:2 9.0% Half-time first pick 0:0 (61.2%)

New Mexico United

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Birmingham Legion side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Birmingham Legion; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (61.2%); HT draw probability is 65.2%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.75

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队实力占优但客场节奏慢，主队防守尚可，低进球预期，平局可能高。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 微雨, 24°C. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather creates a disruption signal, so high-tempo attacking chains and blowout tails are treated more carefully. The totals line is high, but the weather-risk signal keeps unconditional open-game assumptions under review.

5. Sample and soft factors Strong sample

259 comparable matches; market bucket support is solid

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 19.7%

2:1 14.1%

1:2 9.6%

2:2 9.0%

3:1 8.5%

3:2 4.9%

2:3 4.6%

1:3 3.0%

FT market: side line 0.25 · total 2.75 · Bucket ah_ou:0.25/3.0

Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 1:1 19.7%; 2:1 14.1%; 1:2 9.6%; 2:2 9.0%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 61.2%

1:0 15.5%

0:1 13.1%

1:1 3.9%

2:0 2.1%

0:2 1.8%

2:1 0.8%

1:2 0.7%

HT market: side line 0.00 · total 1.25

Birmingham Legion win43.0%

Draw32.0%

New Mexico United win25.0%

Birmingham Legion expected goals1.91

New Mexico United expected goals1.52

Under 3.555.5%

FT temperature0.95

Empirical weight76.4%

Sample size259

Europe 1X2home 41.6% / draw 25.1% / away 33.3%

Key Variables

First-goal path Birmingham Legion benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.

Deciding factor Draw probability is 32.0%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.

Risk point Under 3.5 is 55.5%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:19:19 CST (started/finished about 233h 20m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:19:19

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补

Latest marketFT handicap 0.25 · total 2.75

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: Birmingham Legion win · Actual side: draw · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Birmingham Legion vs New Mexico United is 1:1 (19.7%). Birmingham Legion side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队实力占优但客场节奏慢，主队防守尚可，低进球预期，平局可能高。 HT first pick is 0:0 (61.2%); HT draw probability is 65.2%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only