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UEFA Champions League · Score Research

07-22 03:00 CST · UEFA Champions League · Separate HT/FT models

Vi

Vikingur Reykjavik

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 16.9% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 1:1 16.9%; 2:1 15.4%; 1:2 9.5%; 2:2 9.4% Half-time first pick 0:0 (61.2%)
Ha

Hapoel Beer Sheva

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Vikingur Reykjavik side rates higher

The Asian handicap is close to level, with no clear market gap.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (61.2%); HT draw probability is 65.3%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.75

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队防守稳固，客队进攻疲软，微雨低温主队占优，平手盘倾向小比分。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / weather risk

Venue: 维京沃鲁尔球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 微雨, 11℃～12℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather creates a disruption signal, so high-tempo attacking chains and blowout tails are treated more carefully. The totals line is high, but the weather-risk signal keeps unconditional open-game assumptions under review.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

219 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 16.9%
2:1 15.4%
1:2 9.5%
2:2 9.4%
1:3 5.7%
3:1 5.4%
3:2 5.2%
2:3 3.8%
FT market: side line 0.00 · total 2.75 · Bucket ah_ou:0.0/3.0
Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 1:1 16.9%; 2:1 15.4%; 1:2 9.5%; 2:2 9.4%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 61.2%
1:0 15.4%
0:1 13.2%
1:1 3.9%
2:0 2.1%
0:2 1.8%
2:1 0.8%
1:2 0.7%
HT market: side line 0.00 · total 1.25
Vikingur Reykjavik win41.6%
Draw30.3%
Hapoel Beer Sheva win28.1%
Vikingur Reykjavik expected goals1.87
Hapoel Beer Sheva expected goals1.62
Under 3.555.1%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight73.2%
Sample size219
Europe 1X2home 37.2% / draw 26.3% / away 36.5%

Key Variables

First-goal path Vikingur Reykjavik benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 30.3%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 55.1%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:55 CST (started/finished about 334h 19m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:55

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 0 · total 2.75

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: Vikingur Reykjavik win · Actual side: Vikingur Reykjavik win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Vikingur Reykjavik vs Hapoel Beer Sheva is 1:1 (16.9%). Vikingur Reykjavik side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队防守稳固，客队进攻疲软，微雨低温主队占优，平手盘倾向小比分。 HT first pick is 0:0 (61.2%); HT draw probability is 65.3%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only