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07-22 02:00 CST · UEFA Champions League · Separate HT/FT models

Th

Thun

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:2 Probability 14.6% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 1:2 14.6%; 1:3 8.0%; 2:3 4.9%; 0:1 3.9% Half-time first pick 0:0 (56.8%)
Di

Dinamo Zagreb

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Dinamo Zagreb side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Dinamo Zagreb; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (56.8%); HT draw probability is 62.9%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 3.00

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队实力占优但主队主场防守差，节奏开放，主队有进球机会，总球数可能偏大。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: 图恩竞技场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 多云, 20℃～21℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

121 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:2 14.6%
1:3 8.0%
2:3 4.9%
0:1 3.9%
1:4 2.7%
0:2 2.7%
0:3 1.5%
2:4 1.5%
FT market: side line -0.50 · total 3.00 · Bucket ah_ou:-0.5/3.0
Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 1:2 14.6%; 1:3 8.0%; 2:3 4.9%; 0:1 3.9%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 56.8%
0:1 16.7%
1:0 12.6%
1:1 5.9%
0:2 3.4%
2:0 2.1%
1:2 0.9%
2:1 0.5%
HT market: side line -0.25 · total 1.25
Thun win28.4%
Draw27.6%
Dinamo Zagreb win44.0%
Thun expected goals1.53
Dinamo Zagreb expected goals1.87
Under 3.558.3%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight60.2%
Sample size121
Europe 1X2home 27.5% / draw 24.5% / away 48.0%

Key Variables

First-goal path Dinamo Zagreb benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 27.6%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 58.3%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:55 CST (started/finished about 335h 19m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:55

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap -0.5 · total 3

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:2

Predicted side: Dinamo Zagreb win · Actual side: draw · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Thun vs Dinamo Zagreb is 1:2 (14.6%). Dinamo Zagreb side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队实力占优但主队主场防守差，节奏开放，主队有进球机会，总球数可能偏大。 HT first pick is 0:0 (56.8%); HT draw probability is 62.9%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only