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07-15 01:30 CST · UEFA Champions League · Separate HT/FT models

Th

The New Saints

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:2 Probability 14.6% · High-total score cluster High-total score cluster: 1:2 14.6%; 1:3 9.2%; 1:4 5.8%; 2:3 4.6%; 0:3 3.3%; 2:4 2.4%; 0:4 1.6%; 1:5 1.2% Half-time first pick 0:0 (44.8%)
Sa

Sabah FK Baku

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Sabah FK Baku side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Sabah FK Baku; the market prices the away side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (44.8%); HT draw probability is 52.8%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 3.00

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队实力占优，盘口客让1球，但主队主场或有抵抗，总进球可能不多。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: 公园大厅体育场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 多云, 21℃～22℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

73 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:2 14.6%
1:1 13.2%
1:3 9.2%
2:2 6.8%
2:1 6.6%
0:1 6.2%
1:4 5.8%
0:2 5.1%
FT market: side line -1.00 · total 3.00 · Bucket ah_ou:-1.0/3.0
Score cluster: High-total score cluster: 1:2 14.6%; 1:3 9.2%; 1:4 5.8%; 2:3 4.6%; 0:3 3.3%; 2:4 2.4%; 0:4 1.6%; 1:5 1.2%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 44.8%
0:1 23.8%
1:0 10.2%
1:1 7.7%
0:2 7.3%
1:2 1.8%
0:3 1.3%
2:0 1.1%
HT market: side line -0.50 · total 1.25
The New Saints win19.5%
Draw23.9%
Sabah FK Baku win56.6%
The New Saints expected goals1.30
Sabah FK Baku expected goals2.08
Under 3.556.0%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight47.7%
Sample size73
Europe 1X2home 17.8% / draw 20.9% / away 61.3%

Key Variables

First-goal path Sabah FK Baku benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 23.9%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 56.0%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:55 CST (started/finished about 503h 49m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:55

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap -1 · total 3

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:2

Predicted side: Sabah FK Baku win · Actual side: Sabah FK Baku win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for The New Saints vs Sabah FK Baku is 1:2 (14.6%). Sabah FK Baku side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 客队实力占优，盘口客让1球，但主队主场或有抵抗，总进球可能不多。 HT first pick is 0:0 (44.8%); HT draw probability is 52.8%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only