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UEFA Champions League · Score Research

07-22 02:30 CST · UEFA Champions League · Separate HT/FT models

St

Sturm Graz

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 15.3% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 2:1 15.3%; 3:1 11.2%; 3:2 4.8%; 2:0 3.7% Half-time first pick 0:0 (60.4%)
He

Heart of Midlothian

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Sturm Graz side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Sturm Graz; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (60.4%); HT draw probability is 64.7%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.75

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队格拉茨风暴主场优势明显，但客队哈茨防守稳固，预期有球但不多，主队小胜概率大。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: UPC球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 间中有云, 16℃～17℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

199 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 15.3%
3:1 11.2%
3:2 4.8%
2:0 3.7%
1:0 3.5%
4:1 3.0%
5:1 2.3%
4:2 2.3%
FT market: side line 0.75 · total 2.75 · Bucket ah_ou:0.75/3.0
Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 2:1 15.3%; 3:1 11.2%; 3:2 4.8%; 2:0 3.7%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 60.4%
1:0 20.0%
0:1 9.0%
1:1 4.2%
2:0 2.6%
0:2 1.2%
2:1 0.9%
3:0 0.6%
HT market: side line 0.25 · total 1.00
Sturm Graz win54.3%
Draw27.7%
Heart of Midlothian win18.0%
Sturm Graz expected goals2.19
Heart of Midlothian expected goals1.38
Under 3.552.0%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight71.3%
Sample size199
Europe 1X2home 50.7% / draw 25.1% / away 24.1%

Key Variables

First-goal path Sturm Graz benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 27.7%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 52.0%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:55 CST (started/finished about 334h 49m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:55

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 0.75 · total 2.75

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: Sturm Graz win · Actual side: Sturm Graz win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Sturm Graz vs Heart of Midlothian is 2:1 (15.3%). Sturm Graz side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队格拉茨风暴主场优势明显，但客队哈茨防守稳固，预期有球但不多，主队小胜概率大。 HT first pick is 0:0 (60.4%); HT draw probability is 64.7%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only