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UEFA Champions League · Score Research

07-22 00:00 CST · UEFA Champions League · Separate HT/FT models

Sa

Sabah FK Baku

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 2:1 Probability 16.5% · Standard score cluster Standard score cluster: 2:1 16.5%; 1:1 10.8%; 3:1 10.1%; 1:0 6.6% Half-time first pick 0:0 (51.5%)
Ku

KuPs

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Sabah FK Baku side rates higher

The handicap leans toward Sabah FK Baku; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (51.5%); HT draw probability is 57.5%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.75

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队实力占优但风格未知，客队防守强节奏慢，总进球倾向保守，主队领先可能收着踢。

4. Venue factor Non-neutral venue

Venue: venue pending. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 间中有云, 26°C. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line, the venue layer can support a more open upper tail.

5. Sample and soft factors Usable sample

112 comparable matches; useful for probability ranking

Full-Time Score Distribution

2:1 16.5%
1:1 10.8%
3:1 10.1%
1:0 6.6%
3:2 6.4%
2:0 5.7%
1:2 5.7%
2:2 5.6%
FT market: side line 1.25 · total 2.75 · Bucket ah_ou:1.25/3.0
Score cluster: Standard score cluster: 2:1 16.5%; 1:1 10.8%; 3:1 10.1%; 1:0 6.6%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 51.5%
1:0 23.6%
0:1 8.9%
1:1 5.6%
2:0 5.5%
2:1 1.4%
3:0 1.2%
0:2 0.8%
HT market: side line 0.50 · total 1.25
Sabah FK Baku win66.1%
Draw21.2%
KuPs win12.8%
Sabah FK Baku expected goals2.31
KuPs expected goals1.17
Under 3.554.5%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight58.3%
Sample size112
Europe 1X2home 66.2% / draw 19.6% / away 14.2%

Key Variables

First-goal path Sabah FK Baku benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 21.2%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 54.5%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:55 CST (started/finished about 337h 19m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:55

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 1.25 · total 2.75

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 2:1

Predicted side: Sabah FK Baku win · Actual side: Sabah FK Baku win · side aligned

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Sabah FK Baku vs KuPs is 2:1 (16.5%). Sabah FK Baku side rates higher. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 主队实力占优但风格未知，客队防守强节奏慢，总进球倾向保守，主队领先可能收着踢。 HT first pick is 0:0 (51.5%); HT draw probability is 57.5%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only