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UEFA Champions League · Score Research

07-23 01:30 CST · UEFA Champions League · Separate HT/FT models

Le

Levski Sofia

Home side / left market direction

Full-time first pick 1:1 Probability 29.2% · Low-total exact zone Low-total exact zone: 1:1 29.2%; 2:1 14.8%; 1:2 11.9% Half-time first pick 0:0 (62.1%)
CS

CS Universitatea Craiova

Away side / right market direction

Five-Factor Read

1. Market strength Draw carries the highest weight

The handicap leans toward Levski Sofia; the market prices the home side as stronger.

2. Form and pace 0:0

HT first pick is 0:0 (62.1%); HT draw probability is 66.0%, so the model still respects early caution.

3. AI Sidecar Read FT total 2.25

This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 双方实力接近，平局概率高，节奏偏慢，主场优势有限，预计小比分。

4. Venue factor non-neutral / normal weather

Venue: 阿斯柏鲁卓夫球场. Non-neutral venue. Weather/temperature: 间中有云, 20℃～21℃. The schedule marks this as non-neutral, so home/away identity remains a weak background factor. Weather and temperature do not show a clear tempo-suppression signal. Together with the totals line and Under 3.5 probability, the venue layer supports a lower-tempo or lower-margin script rather than pushing the score upward.

5. Sample and soft factors Strong sample

299 comparable matches; market bucket support is solid

Full-Time Score Distribution

1:1 29.2%
2:1 14.8%
1:2 11.9%
2:2 9.0%
3:1 6.4%
3:2 3.8%
1:0 3.2%
2:0 2.9%
FT market: side line 0.25 · total 2.25 · Bucket ah_ou:0.25/2.0
Score cluster: Low-total exact zone: 1:1 29.2%; 2:1 14.8%; 1:2 11.9%

Half-Time Score Distribution

0:0 62.1%
1:0 19.7%
0:1 8.9%
1:1 3.8%
2:0 2.3%
0:2 1.1%
2:1 0.8%
3:0 0.5%
HT market: side line 0.25 · total 0.75
Levski Sofia win35.9%
Draw41.8%
CS Universitatea Craiova win22.3%
Levski Sofia expected goals1.62
CS Universitatea Craiova expected goals1.37
Under 3.569.0%
FT temperature0.95
Empirical weight78.9%
Sample size299
Europe 1X2home 40.0% / draw 29.7% / away 30.2%

Key Variables

First-goal path Levski Sofia benefits most from opening the scoring; if HT stays 0:0, the FT distribution compresses toward lower scores.
Deciding factor Draw probability is 41.8%, so the exact-score set should keep draw and one-goal-margin scripts alive.
Risk point Under 3.5 is 69.0%; if the live total moves up materially, rerun the model.

Pre-Match Update · Market Movement

Published 2026-08-05 01:18:55 CST (started/finished about 311h 49m ago) | Snapshot window: pending -> 2026-08-05 01:18:55

First snapshotFT handicap 待补 · total 待补
Latest marketFT handicap 0.25 · total 2.25

Movement: FT handicap data pending; FT total data pending; HT handicap data pending; HT total data pending.

Pre-match note: Market snapshots are thin; refresh Feijing data again before publishing the final pre-match version.

Final Read: 1:1

Predicted side: draw · Actual side: Levski Sofia win · side missed

Using the full-time handicap, totals, comparable market buckets and half-time market, the model's full-time first pick for Levski Sofia vs CS Universitatea Craiova is 1:1 (29.2%). Draw carries the highest weight. This match uses a DeepSeek AI sidecar factor. The AI signal only applies a small candidate-score reweighting and does not override the market/history main model by itself. AI note: 双方实力接近，平局概率高，节奏偏慢，主场优势有限，预计小比分。 HT first pick is 0:0 (62.1%); HT draw probability is 66.0%, so the model still respects early caution. Exact-score outputs are probability rankings for pre-match research and review.

Risk note: exact scores are low-hit-rate events. The model output is a probability ranking, not a certainty; late market moves, lineups, red cards and early goals can reshape the distribution.

Sources

Feijing · fixtures, results, Asian handicap, totals, half-time markets, Europe 1X2 · Local history database · historical market lines, full-time scores, half-time scores · DeepSeek · AI sidecar context, bounded candidate reweighting only